Skip to content

Aviso de risco: Nossos produtos são alavancados e apresentam um alto nível de risco, o que pode resultar na perda de todo o seu capital. Esses produtos podem não ser adequados para todos os investidores. É fundamental entender completamente os riscos envolvidos.

  • Apoiar
  • Para Institucionais
  • Negociação

    Plataformas de Negociação

    • Terminal MetaTrader 4
    • Terminal MetaTrader 5
    • Contas PAMM
    • Servidor Equinix

    Cobertura de mercados

    • Moedas FX
    • Metais preciosos
    • Commodities

     

    • CFD de ações
    • Índices
    • CFDs de criptomoedas

    Comece a negociar

    • Contas standard Para pessoas físicas
    • Conta institucional Para profissionais
    • Depósitos e retiradas
  • Condições

    Condições de Negociação

    • Visão geral dos spreads
    • Negociação sem swap
    • Informações sobre alavancagem

     

    • Especificações de CFD
    • Condições completas

    Invista do seu jeito

    Precificação transparente, custos reduzidos e alavancagem que se adapta à sua estratégia.

    Explore condições
  • Ferramentas
    • Visão geral semanal
    • Análise técnica diária
    • Comentário de mercado
    • Calendário econômico
    • Insights
  • Sobre nós
    • Sobre OnEquity
    • Notícias da empresa
    • Documentos legais
    • Proteção do cliente
    • Ajuda e suporte
    • Perguntas frequentes
  • Partners
Edit Content
  • Português
    ACTIVE
Other languages:
  • Español – Spanish
  • Português – Portuguese
  • English – International
  • Trading
    • Mercados
    • Plataforma MetaTrader 5
    • Plataforma MetaTrader 4
    • Contas standard
    • Conta institucional
    • Contas PAMM
    • Servidor Equinix
    • Depósitos e retiradas
  • Condições
    • Preços dos spreads
    • Alavancagem dinâmica
    • Negociação sem swap
    • Especificações de CFD
    • Condições de negociação
  • Ferramentas
    • Análise técnica diária
    • Visão geral semanal
    • Visão do mercado
    • Calendário econômico
    • Insights
  • Sobre nós
    • Sobre OnEquity
    • Notícias da empresa
    • Documentos legais
    • Proteção do cliente
    • Ajuda e suporte
    • Perguntas frequentes
  • Partners
  • Portal
  • Abrir conta
Edit Content
  • Português
    ACTIVE
Other languages:
  • Español – Spanish
  • Português – Portuguese
  • English – International
Abrir conta
Portal
Análise, Visão da Semana

Outlook for the Week of May 05 – 09

May 6, 2025 OnEquity

Global markets face a tense week as a wave of U.S. data—including GDP, PCE inflation, and nonfarm payrolls—coincides with growing recession fears and ongoing trade tensions, especially with China. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, markets will parse Powell’s tone for clues on future cuts. Abroad, the Bank of England may deliver a rate cut but push back against dovish bets, while the Bank of Japan could revise growth forecasts downward. Key inflation readings from the Eurozone and Australia, along with labor data from New Zealand, Japan, and Canada, will also shape expectations. Meanwhile, China’s trade report and AMD’s earnings could further sway risk sentiment.

For additional insights into market movements, explore our educational hub at https://hub.onequity.com, where you can access updated financial data, analysis, and trading resources.

Key Points to Watch Out For:

  • The Fed will hold off amid tariff turmoil.
  • The Bank of England will cut 25 basis points; however, it may disappoint supporters of a dovish monetary policy.
  • Chinese trade data will highlight the damage inflicted by the U.S.–China trade war.
  • Meanwhile, Japanese wages, Canadian employment figures, and AMD results are also in the spotlight.

The Dollar Stabilizes as Trade Tensions Ease Slightly

The U.S. dollar regained some ground last week after President Trump appeared to soften his trade stance and signed orders that mitigate the impact of his tariffs on automobiles. The White House also signaled that it is close to reaching trade agreements with India and South Korea.

However, the dollar posted its worst monthly performance since November 2022, as concerns about the broader economic repercussions of tariffs—particularly those targeting China—continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The prospects for a resolution to the U.S.–China dispute remain bleak, with China showing no signs of yielding to U.S. pressure. A telling moment came when China’s Foreign Ministry posted on social media: “China will not kneel.”

The current uncertainty and recession fears have led markets to price in nearly 90 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. This reinforces the view that, despite the modest rebound in the dollar and equity markets and the decline in demand for safe-haven assets, recession risks remain high—especially after first-quarter GDP data showed that the U.S. economy contracted.

The Fed’s Decision in the Spotlight: Will Powell Strike a Dovish Tone?

With market sentiment fragile, attention is now focused on Wednesday’s FOMC decision. At its March meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged and projected only 50 basis points in cuts for the rest of the year. However, the upcoming meeting—while not including updated forecasts or dot plots—will be scrutinized for any change in tone in the statement and in Chairman Powell’s press conference.

Following the tariff announcements and associated volatility, Fed officials, including Powell, have emphasized patience and the need for more data before changing monetary policy. This is despite growing pressure from Trump to lower financing costs. Some officials remain concerned that tariffs could fuel inflation.

Given this dynamic, the Fed could acknowledge the growing downside risks and hint at the possibility of more than 50 basis points in rate cuts. Even so, it is unlikely they will appear more dovish than current market prices. A less dovish-than-expected outcome could reinforce the Fed’s independence and support a further recovery in the dollar.

It is also worth noting that the ISM non-manufacturing PMI for April, due out on Monday, May 5, could offer insight into business confidence in the wake of the tariffs.

The Bank of England Is Set to Cut, but Could Reject Bets on a Dovish Stance

On Thursday, May 8, all eyes will be on the Bank of England. Unlike the ECB and the Fed, the Bank of England has acted cautiously, cutting interest rates at a slower pace as inflation in the U.K. remains stubbornly high.

In March, the Bank of England kept rates on hold and emphasized a “gradual and cautious” approach to monetary policy. Since then, February GDP figures showed monthly expansion of 0.5%, while year-on-year growth rose to 1.4%. Inflation moderated in March but remained above target, with core CPI at 3.4%. Strong retail sales also supported a resilient economic outlook.

However, April PMIs showed a contraction in activity, and Governor Bailey expressed concern about the potential impact of U.S. tariffs, although he also noted that the U.K. is not close to recession.

This sets the stage for a likely quarter-point cut next week. However, with market pricing in almost three more cuts before the end of the year, the Bank of England could disappoint even modest expectations. Even if policymakers adopt a softer tone, new forecasts are unlikely to justify the market’s aggressive bets on easing. A less dovish message than expected could boost the pound.

China Trade Data in Focus After Tariff Fallout

China’s April trade data, due on Friday, May 9, will be closely watched after the latest PMIs showed industrial activity contracting at the fastest pace in 16 months—snapping the two-month recovery triggered by Trump’s tariffs.

If exports show significant damage, calls for further stimulus from Beijing are likely to intensify. This could hit risk appetite and affect currencies linked to Chinese demand, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Investors could also expect a flight to safe-haven assets, boosting gold prices on speculation that China could accelerate its gold purchases to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds.

In addition, New Zealand’s labor market data, due out on Wednesday, May 7, in the morning, will be key for the currency.

Labor Data from Japan and Canada Could Change Expectations for Monetary Policy

Japan’s March wage data, due on Friday, May 9, could influence expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Although traders had lowered their bets on a rate hike amid global uncertainty, recent statements by Governor Ueda reaffirming the Bank of Japan’s restrictive stance—coupled with the rise in Tokyo’s CPI—have reignited some optimism about a hike later this year.

However, following the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep rates steady and link future hikes to the evolution of tariffs, solid wage data will be needed to restore confidence in further tightening.

Meanwhile, Canada will also release its employment figures on Friday, May 9. A few weeks ago, the Bank of Canada suspended rate cuts at 2.75% after seven consecutive reductions, citing uncertainty linked to tariffs and presenting two possible scenarios instead of publishing forecasts.

Governor Macklem emphasized caution going forward. Markets are divided: they see a 60% chance of a cut and a 40% chance of a pause at the next meeting. A strong employment report could tip the balance toward no change, which would boost the Canadian dollar.

Conclusion

In the corporate arena, AMD will report earnings this week. The company previously estimated that Trump’s restrictions on exports of high-end processors to China would cost it up to $800 million. Although semiconductors benefited from partial tariff exemptions, there is still a risk of new levies being imposed in the future.

Although this quarter’s results will not yet reflect April’s turmoil, AMD’s forecasts are likely to be cautious, giving an insight into how companies plan to deal with escalating trade tensions.

Trade with confidence—get the latest market insights at OnEquity.com.

  • Analysis
  • Weekly Outlook

Post navigation

Previous
Next

Search

Categories

  • Ações (36)
  • Análise (100)
  • Análise Técnica Diária (63)
  • Avançado (1)
  • Criptos (13)
  • Educação (7)
  • Iniciante (4)
  • Intermediário (2)
  • Mercados (32)
  • Moedas (22)
  • Notícias e Publicações (21)
  • Uncategorized (1)
  • Visão da Semana (34)

Recent posts

  • Trump May Sign Executive Order Targeting Banks That Discriminate Against Crypto Firms
  • Fundamental Analysis of European and U.S. Stock Markets – August 5, 2025
  • Today’s stocks to watch: AMD, Palantir, and Super Micro

Tags

2025 Africa Analysis Bitcoin Cardano Crypto Cryptocurrencies Currencies Currency Pairs Daily Demand Dollar Dubai Education ETF Ethereum Euro Expo Fed Germany Growing Halving Hours Liquidity Litecoin Outlook Pound Reserve Ripple SEC Solana Stock Market Stocks Market Stocks today Supply Technical Technical Analysis Texas Trading Trading patterns Wall Street Weekly Weekly Outlook Yen Yuan

Related posts

Análise, Visão da Semana

Outlook for the Week of August 4–8

August 5, 2025 Carlos Sereno

The week of August 4–8 is expected to be relatively quiet but could still hold meaningful developments for global markets. The spotlight will be on the Bank of England’s rate decision, as policymakers navigate the challenge of persistent inflation amid slowing economic growth. In the U.S., attention shifts to the ISM Services PMI, a key […]

Análise, Visão da Semana

Outlook for the Week of June 29 – July 4

July 1, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 29–July 4 promises to be pivotal for global markets, with investors watching key economic data and central bank signals amid lingering geopolitical risks. In the U.S., focus will center on core PCE, ISM PMIs, and the jobs report, which could shift expectations for Fed rate cuts, while political tensions over Fed […]

Análise, Visão da Semana

Outlook for the Week of June 23 – 27

June 24, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 23–27 could prove pivotal for global markets, as investors navigate a mix of economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., attention will center on core PCE and consumer spending data, alongside Fed Chair Powell’s testimony—all under the shadow of tariff impacts and slowing consumption. Europe awaits June PMIs and […]

  • Política de privacidade
  • Contrato do cliente
  • Legal
  • Suporte
  • +2484671965
  • [email protected]
  • Chat ao vivo
Empresa
  • Sobre nós
  • Regulamentação
  • Proteção de fundos
  • Atualizações
  • Insights
  • FAQ
Opções de conta
  • Contas standard
  • Conta institucional
  • Contas PAMM
  • Conta islâmica
Condições
  • Visão geral dos spreads
  • Níveis de alavancagem
  • Especificações de CFD
  • Cobertura de mercados
Recursos de negociação
  • MetaTrader 5
  • MetaTrader 4
  • Servidor Equinix
  • Calendário econômico
  • Análise técnica diária
  • Visão geral semanal
  • Comentário de mercado
A OnEquity Ltd está constituída nas Seychelles como Negociante de Valores Mobiliários com a Licença nº SD154, autorizada pela Autoridade de Serviços Financeiros das Seychelles (FSA), aderindo ao Consolidated Securities Act de 2007. Registro nº 810588-1.

O site é operado e fornece conteúdo pelo grupo de empresas OnEquity, que inclui:

OnEquity SA (Pty) Ltd, constituída na África do Sul, empresa reg. 2021/321834/07, regulamentado pela Autoridade de Conduta do Setor Financeiro (FSCA) com FSP nº 53187.

OnEquity LLC, reconhecida pelo Registrador de Empresas de Negócios Internacionais e pela Autoridade de Serviços Financeiros em São Vicente e Granadinas, Registro nº 286 LLC 2020.

ONEQ Global Ltd, registrada em Chipre, registro da empresa. HE 435383, localizado em Agias Zonis 22, Limassol, com foco em soluções de serviços abrangentes dentro do Grupo OnEquity.
Divulgação de riscos: A negociação de instrumentos financeiros envolve riscos substanciais e pode não ser adequada para todos os investidores. O valor dos investimentos é volátil e pode resultar na perda total de capital. Os investidores devem considerar a sua situação financeira, experiência de investimento e tolerância ao risco, e podem procurar aconselhamento profissional. O desempenho passado não é indicativo de resultados futuros.

Elegibilidade: Os serviços estão disponíveis para indivíduos com 18 anos ou mais.

Jurisdições restritas: O conteúdo fornecido pela OnEquity não se destina a residentes dos Estados Unidos, Canadá, Coreia do Norte, Iémen, Irão, Bélgica, Síria ou qualquer jurisdição onde tal distribuição ou utilização seja contrária à lei ou regulamento local.

Todas as marcas registradas™ e nomes de marcas pertencem aos seus respectivos proprietários e são usados aqui apenas para fins de identificação. O uso desses nomes não implica endosso.
© OnEquity. Todos os direitos reservados.