U.S. Stock Markets Down, Watch Out for Inflation
U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower on Monday as investors consolidated recent gains ahead of the release of key inflation data this week, seeking more clarity on interest rates.
Futures dipped after Wall Street indexes hit record highs on Friday, driven by a tech stock rally, while better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data did little to shift market expectations of a December rate cut.
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite ended Friday at new records, rising nearly 1% and more than 3% for the week, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, lagged, closing the week down 0.6%.
CPI Data Awaited for Interest Rate Signals
Investors began the week cautiously, with attention focused on the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Wednesday. The report will shed light on inflation trends, the U.S. economy, and potential interest rate adjustments.
The overall CPI is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.7% and a monthly rise of 0.2%. Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is also projected to remain significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
While the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week, it is expected to adopt a slower pace of cuts in 2025 due to persistent inflation and robust labor market conditions.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data showed stronger-than-expected job growth in November, though the participation rate declined, and manufacturing payrolls fell short of estimates.
Turmoil in Syria
Investors were on the fence about what a regime change in Syria would look like for Middle East geopolitics after rebel forces toppled President Bashar al-Assad and took control of Damascus, ending 13 years of civil war.
The media reported that al-Assad had landed in Moscow, while Israeli forces had entered Syria.
Oracle ready to present its results
In the corporate sector, the quarterly earnings season is slowly winding down, but investors will not yet be able to analyze Oracle’s (ORCL) results after Monday’s close.
Citigroup (C) expects the benchmark s&P 500 index to reach 6,500 by the end of 2025, up from 6,100 at Friday’s close, as a result of a combination of earnings growth, macroeconomic stability and sector expansion.
However, the Wall Street firm notes that the path to this milestone is likely to be accompanied by high market volatility compared to the stable performance of 2024.