U.S Stock Futures Decline, Recession Fears Grow

U.S. stock index futures fell on Monday, extending last week’s selloff as investors remained cautious about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

As of 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT):

• Dow Jones Futures dropped 400 points (-0.9%)
• S&P 500 Futures declined 65 points (-1.1%)
• Nasdaq 100 Futures fell 250 points (-1.3%)

Stocks Under Pressure After Heavy Weekly Losses

Major U.S. stock indexes posted steep declines last week after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, only to later exempt most goods for a month. This back-and-forth approach has fueled uncertainty over U.S. trade policy.

• The S&P 500 fell nearly 3%, marking its worst week in six months.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.2%.
• The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.5%, officially entering correction territory after falling more than 10% from its December record high.

Trump Leaves Recession Risk Open

Investor sentiment took another hit after Trump declined to rule out the possibility of a U.S. recession in a Sunday interview on Fox News. He acknowledged that “there would be transition pains” in the “very big work being done.”

Beyond ongoing economic concerns in recent months, fears in the markets have intensified due to Trump’s tariff hikes on Chinese goods, prompting retaliatory measures from China. Additionally, Trump’s plan to introduce global reciprocal tariffs by April 2 has further strained economic confidence.

Key Inflation Data in Focus

This week, the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be closely watched for insights into U.S. inflation trends. Scheduled for release on Wednesday, the report will mark the first full month of Trump’s second term.

Economists expect:

• Annual inflation to slip to 2.9%, down from 3.0% in January.
• Monthly inflation to ease to 0.3%, a decline from 0.5% in the previous month.

The CPI report will be one of the last key data points the Federal Reserve reviews before its March 18-19 policy meeting, where officials will assess whether to maintain their pause on rate cuts.

Other key economic indicators this week include:

• The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), a key measure of labor demand.
• Friday’s jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, slightly below expectations, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.1%.

Tech Earnings in the Spotlight

Investors will also monitor a wave of tech earnings this week, including:

• Oracle (ORCL), following Trump’s announcement that the company, alongside OpenAI and Japan’s SoftBank (9984), will invest heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
• Adobe (ADBE) and DocuSign (DOCU) are also set to report.
• Retailers Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) and Kohl’s (KSS) will provide insights into U.S. consumer spending trends.

Oil Prices Edge Higher After Steep Declines

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly on Monday after last week’s sharp selloff, which pushed them to over three-year lows due to fears of slowing global demand.

As of 05:25 ET (10:25 GMT):

• Brent crude rose 0.2% to $70.53 per barrel.
• U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 0.2% to $67.21 per barrel.

Meanwhile, weekend data from China showed persistent deflationary trends, raising concerns about demand from the world’s largest oil importer.