{"id":43711,"date":"2025-11-13T09:18:29","date_gmt":"2025-11-13T09:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=43711"},"modified":"2025-11-13T09:25:01","modified_gmt":"2025-11-13T09:25:01","slug":"japao-esta-saindo-de-decadas-de-politica-monetaria-ultraexpansiva","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/japao-esta-saindo-de-decadas-de-politica-monetaria-ultraexpansiva\/","title":{"rendered":"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

O Jap\u00e3o est\u00e1 finalmente deixando para tr\u00e1s d\u00e9cadas de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ultraexpansiva<\/strong>, per\u00edodo durante o qual a taxa de juro oficial permaneceu em territ\u00f3rio negativo de 2016 at\u00e9 2024<\/strong>.
O Banco do Jap\u00e3o (BoJ)<\/strong>, autoridade monet\u00e1ria do pa\u00eds, iniciou um processo de normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o gradual<\/strong>, elevando as taxas at\u00e9 o n\u00edvel atual de 0,50%<\/strong>, o mais alto desde 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uma minoria de analistas prev\u00ea um novo aumento para 0,75% em dezembro<\/strong>, embora o consenso seja de que a pol\u00edtica continuar\u00e1 amplamente acomodat\u00edcia.
Apesar de taxas mais altas tenderem a favorecer a moeda local, \u00e9 importante lembrar que o Jap\u00e3o ainda mant\u00e9m a taxa mais baixa entre as economias desenvolvidas<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Essa din\u00e2mica mais firme do iene s\u00f3 foi poss\u00edvel devido ao aumento das expectativas de infla\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong>, atualmente pr\u00f3ximas de 2,9%<\/strong>, acima da meta do banco central.
Entretanto, o enorme endividamento p\u00fablico \u2014 cerca de 237% do PIB \u2014<\/strong> limita fortemente a capacidade do BoJ de implementar uma pol\u00edtica significativamente mais restritiva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al\u00e9m disso, o fraco crescimento salarial<\/strong> continua deteriorando o poder de compra das fam\u00edlias japonesas, pesando sobre o consumo privado.
Somado a isso, o desempenho moderado das exporta\u00e7\u00f5es contribuiu para a desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB<\/strong>, que cresceu apenas +1,2% interanual no segundo trimestre de 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

O resultado dessas for\u00e7as divergentes tem sido um iene persistentemente fraco<\/strong>, com o USDJPY negociando pr\u00f3ximo a 155<\/strong>, muito acima dos n\u00edveis nos quais, em anos anteriores, o BoJ e o Minist\u00e9rio das Finan\u00e7as (MoF) intervieram para conter a desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o excessiva da moeda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Como mencionado, o USDJPY permanece acima da zona 150\u2013152<\/strong>, o mesmo intervalo em que as autoridades japonesas intervieram em 2022 e 2023<\/strong> para limitar a fraqueza do iene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ap\u00f3s a queda desde 158,87 no in\u00edcio de 2025<\/strong> \u2014 motivada por uma infla\u00e7\u00e3o acima de 4% \u2014, o par encontrou suporte na regi\u00e3o de 142\u2013143<\/strong>, coincidindo com uma linha de tend\u00eancia de alta de longo prazo<\/strong> iniciada no come\u00e7o daquele ano.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Depois de v\u00e1rios meses de consolida\u00e7\u00e3o entre 142,50 e 146<\/strong>, o USDJPY ganhou for\u00e7a em julho de 2025<\/strong>, avan\u00e7ando para o intervalo 146,50\u2013149,30<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No in\u00edcio de outubro, o par retomou com intensidade sua tend\u00eancia ascendente<\/strong>, subindo de 149 para os atuais 154,72<\/strong> em pouco mais de um m\u00eas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um ponto especialmente relevante \u00e9 a ruptura da linha de tend\u00eancia de baixa de longo prazo<\/strong>, tra\u00e7ada a partir do m\u00e1ximo de julho de 2024 (162) e confirmada em janeiro de 2025 (158,87) \u2014 um sinal t\u00e9cnico de continua\u00e7\u00e3o da tend\u00eancia de alta<\/strong>, ou seja, de nova desvaloriza\u00e7\u00e3o do iene<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No curto prazo, o rali iniciado em outubro se desenvolve dentro de uma figura de \u201cwedge\u201d (cunha ascendente)<\/strong>, com limite superior pr\u00f3ximo de 155,25<\/strong> e suporte inferior em 153,50<\/strong>, que coincide com o reteste por cima da antiga linha de tend\u00eancia de longo prazo<\/strong> anteriormente rompida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em s\u00edntese, tanto pela \u00f3tica macroecon\u00f4mica<\/strong> quanto pela t\u00e9cnica<\/strong>, o iene parece encaminhado a manter sua fraqueza<\/strong>, com vi\u00e9s altista para o USDJPY<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Entretanto, o movimento provavelmente n\u00e3o ser\u00e1 linear; por isso, \u00e9 recomend\u00e1vel definir cuidadosamente pontos de entrada<\/strong> e manter stop-loss ajustados<\/strong>.
Por exemplo, uma quebra abaixo de 153,00<\/strong> \u2014 cen\u00e1rio que, no momento, n\u00e3o consideramos o mais prov\u00e1vel \u2014 poderia alterar temporariamente<\/strong> o panorama t\u00e9cnico de curto a m\u00e9dio prazo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O Jap\u00e3o est\u00e1 finalmente deixando para tr\u00e1s d\u00e9cadas de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ultraexpansiva, per\u00edodo durante o qual a taxa de juro oficial permaneceu em territ\u00f3rio negativo de 2016 at\u00e9 2024.O Banco do Jap\u00e3o (BoJ), autoridade monet\u00e1ria do pa\u00eds, iniciou um processo de normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o gradual, elevando as taxas at\u00e9 o n\u00edvel atual de 0,50%, o mais alto […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":43156,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[209],"tags":[252],"class_list":["post-43711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical","tag-analysis-pt"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O Jap\u00e3o est\u00e1 finalmente deixando para tr\u00e1s d\u00e9cadas de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ultraexpansiva, per\u00edodo durante o qual a taxa de juro oficial permaneceu em territ\u00f3rio negativo de 2016 at\u00e9 2024.O Banco do Jap\u00e3o (BoJ), autoridade monet\u00e1ria do pa\u00eds, iniciou um processo de normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o gradual, elevando as taxas at\u00e9 o n\u00edvel atual de 0,50%, o mais alto […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/onequity.global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-11-13T09:18:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-11-13T09:25:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ari Ganesa\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@OnEquityGroup\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@OnEquityGroup\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ari Ganesa\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ari Ganesa\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c85aaf19ae31b0a1bfb0fc0a290e5bf5\"},\"headline\":\"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-13T09:18:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-11-13T09:25:01+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/\"},\"wordCount\":574,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Analysis\"],\"articleSection\":[\"An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica Di\u00e1ria\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/\",\"name\":\"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva - OnEquity\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-11-13T09:18:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-11-13T09:25:01+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"pt\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"pt\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png\",\"width\":850,\"height\":550},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/\",\"name\":\"OnEquity\",\"description\":\"Your trusted choice in online trading\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"pt\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"OnEquity\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"pt\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/onequity-favicon.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/onequity-favicon.png\",\"width\":695,\"height\":695,\"caption\":\"OnEquity\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/onequity.global\",\"https:\/\/x.com\/OnEquityGroup\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c85aaf19ae31b0a1bfb0fc0a290e5bf5\",\"name\":\"Ari Ganesa\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva - OnEquity","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/","og_locale":"pt_PT","og_type":"article","og_title":"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva - OnEquity","og_description":"O Jap\u00e3o est\u00e1 finalmente deixando para tr\u00e1s d\u00e9cadas de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ultraexpansiva, per\u00edodo durante o qual a taxa de juro oficial permaneceu em territ\u00f3rio negativo de 2016 at\u00e9 2024.O Banco do Jap\u00e3o (BoJ), autoridade monet\u00e1ria do pa\u00eds, iniciou um processo de normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o gradual, elevando as taxas at\u00e9 o n\u00edvel atual de 0,50%, o mais alto […]","og_url":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/","og_site_name":"OnEquity","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/onequity.global","article_published_time":"2025-11-13T09:18:29+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-11-13T09:25:01+00:00","author":"Ari Ganesa","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@OnEquityGroup","twitter_site":"@OnEquityGroup","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Ari Ganesa","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/"},"author":{"name":"Ari Ganesa","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c85aaf19ae31b0a1bfb0fc0a290e5bf5"},"headline":"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva","datePublished":"2025-11-13T09:18:29+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-13T09:25:01+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/"},"wordCount":574,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png","keywords":["Analysis"],"articleSection":["An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica Di\u00e1ria"],"inLanguage":"pt"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/","url":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/","name":"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva - OnEquity","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png","datePublished":"2025-11-13T09:18:29+00:00","dateModified":"2025-11-13T09:25:01+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"pt","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"pt","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnica-PT.png","width":850,"height":550},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/usdjpy-and-japans-uncertain-economic-outlook\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Jap\u00e3o Est\u00e1 Saindo de D\u00e9cadas de Pol\u00edtica Monet\u00e1ria Ultraexpansiva"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/","name":"OnEquity","description":"Your trusted choice in online trading","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"pt"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#organization","name":"OnEquity","url":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"pt","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/onequity-favicon.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/onequity-favicon.png","width":695,"height":695,"caption":"OnEquity"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/onequity.global","https:\/\/x.com\/OnEquityGroup"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c85aaf19ae31b0a1bfb0fc0a290e5bf5","name":"Ari Ganesa"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}