{"id":49383,"date":"2025-12-22T07:11:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-22T07:11:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/?p=49383"},"modified":"2026-02-19T12:46:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T12:46:19","slug":"eur-usd-anda-de-lado-e-deve-encerrar-2025-perto-das-maximas-do-ano","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/onequity.com\/pt\/eur-usd-anda-de-lado-e-deve-encerrar-2025-perto-das-maximas-do-ano\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD anda de lado e deve encerrar 2025 perto das m\u00e1ximas do ano"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Na coletiva de imprensa da presidente Christine Lagarde, ficou claro que o Banco Central Europeu est\u00e1 confort\u00e1vel com a atual postura de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ap\u00f3s o \u00faltimo ajuste da taxa de refinanciamento principal para <strong>2,15%<\/strong>, implementado em junho. Apenas uma deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o clara e relevante nas perspectivas de crescimento de m\u00e9dio prazo poderia mudar a vis\u00e3o do Conselho de que a pol\u00edtica est\u00e1 em um \u201cbom ponto\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As proje\u00e7\u00f5es da equipe do BCE permanecem relativamente positivas: o crescimento real do PIB deve ficar entre <strong>1,2% e 1,4% ao ano<\/strong> nos pr\u00f3ximos tr\u00eas anos, enquanto a infla\u00e7\u00e3o deve permanecer persistentemente abaixo de 2%, convergindo para esse n\u00edvel apenas por volta de 2028. Vale destacar que Isabel Schnabel, uma das principais candidatas a suceder Lagarde, afirmou recentemente que o pr\u00f3ximo movimento de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria pode ser <strong>uma alta de juros<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Diante desse cen\u00e1rio, o EUR\/USD teve uma sess\u00e3o relativamente tranquila, conseguindo se manter acima de <strong>1,17<\/strong> e encerrando com leve queda de <strong>-0,12%<\/strong>, em <strong>1,1711<\/strong>. O diferencial de rendimento dos t\u00edtulos de 10 anos continua diminuindo, com o Bund alem\u00e3o subindo para <strong>2,9068%<\/strong>, o maior n\u00edvel desde 2011. J\u00e1 o Treasury americano de 10 anos permanece acima de <strong>4%<\/strong> (em <strong>4,169%<\/strong>), embora tenha iniciado o ano perto de 4,75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ainda assim, o futuro do Bund \u2014 negociado perto de <strong>127,16<\/strong> \u2014 aproxima-se de um suporte t\u00e9cnico importante em <strong>126,75<\/strong>, que pode limitar a compress\u00e3o adicional do diferencial de juros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An\u00e1lise t\u00e9cnica<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>O euro se fortaleceu significativamente em 2025. O par come\u00e7ou o ano pr\u00f3ximo da paridade (<strong>1,0354<\/strong>) e rompeu de forma decisiva as m\u00e1ximas mantidas desde mar\u00e7o de 2022, na regi\u00e3o de <strong>1,12<\/strong>. Ap\u00f3s retestar esse n\u00edvel em maio, o movimento de alta continuou at\u00e9 atingir <strong>1,1920 em 17 de setembro<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No entanto, o momentum perdeu for\u00e7a desde julho \u2014 possivelmente refletindo a converg\u00eancia entre BCE e Federal Reserve \u00e0 medida que ambos se aproximam do fim dos ciclos de flexibiliza\u00e7\u00e3o. Desde ent\u00e3o, o pre\u00e7o tem se consolidado dentro de um intervalo amplo entre <strong>1,1485 e 1,18<\/strong>. O topo desse range foi testado novamente na semana passada, seguido por uma leve corre\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>No gr\u00e1fico de 30 minutos, a linha de tend\u00eancia descendente iniciada em <strong>16 de dezembro<\/strong> permanece vis\u00edvel, enquanto a linha de tend\u00eancia de alta iniciada em <strong>21 de novembro<\/strong> continua v\u00e1lida. Com isso, espera-se uma sess\u00e3o com volatilidade comprimida, com o pre\u00e7o possivelmente oscilando entre <strong>1,1705 e 1,1725<\/strong> durante a manh\u00e3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Um rompimento confirmado \u2014 definido como pelo menos tr\u00eas candles consecutivos fora desse intervalo \u2014 poderia abrir espa\u00e7o para um movimento direcional mais forte. Outros n\u00edveis importantes a observar incluem <strong>1,1716<\/strong> e <strong>1,1738<\/strong> no lado da alta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hoje n\u00e3o s\u00e3o esperados dados macroecon\u00f4micos de grande impacto. O PIB do Reino Unido deve ter efeito limitado no par, enquanto leil\u00f5es do Tesouro dos EUA (T-bills de 3 e 6 meses e o t\u00edtulo de 2 anos) podem gerar maior volatilidade entre <strong>16:30 e 18:00 GMT<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Na coletiva de imprensa da presidente Christine Lagarde, ficou claro que o Banco Central Europeu est\u00e1 confort\u00e1vel com a atual postura de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ap\u00f3s o \u00faltimo ajuste da taxa de refinanciamento principal para 2,15%, implementado em junho. Apenas uma deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o clara e relevante nas perspectivas de crescimento de m\u00e9dio prazo poderia mudar a vis\u00e3o [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":43147,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[209],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technical"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EUR\/USD anda de lado e deve encerrar 2025 perto das m\u00e1ximas do ano - OnEquity<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EUR\/USD anda de lado e deve encerrar 2025 perto das m\u00e1ximas do ano - OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Na coletiva de imprensa da presidente Christine Lagarde, ficou claro que o Banco Central Europeu est\u00e1 confort\u00e1vel com a atual postura de pol\u00edtica monet\u00e1ria ap\u00f3s o \u00faltimo ajuste da taxa de refinanciamento principal para 2,15%, implementado em junho. Apenas uma deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o clara e relevante nas perspectivas de crescimento de m\u00e9dio prazo poderia mudar a vis\u00e3o [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"OnEquity\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/onequity.global\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-22T07:11:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-02-19T12:46:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ari Ganesa\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@OnEquityGroup\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@OnEquityGroup\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ari Ganesa\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ari Ganesa\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#\/schema\/person\/c85aaf19ae31b0a1bfb0fc0a290e5bf5\"},\"headline\":\"EUR\/USD anda de lado e deve encerrar 2025 perto das m\u00e1ximas do ano\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-12-22T07:11:16+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-02-19T12:46:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/\"},\"wordCount\":510,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Featured-DailyTechnical-EN.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"An\u00e1lise T\u00e9cnica Di\u00e1ria\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/onequity.com\/eur-usd-drifts-sideways-poised-to-end-2025-close-to-yearly-highs\/\",\"name\":\"EUR\/USD anda de lado e deve encerrar 2025 perto das m\u00e1ximas do ano - 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