Dollar Slightly Down on U.S. Inflation Expectations

The U.S. dollar softened slightly on Wednesday, pulling back from six-month highs as markets awaited critical U.S. inflation data. This report is expected to offer further insight into the future trajectory of interest rates in the world’s largest economy.

Earlier in the session, the Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped by 0.1%, trading at 105.850. This comes after the index breached 106, a level not seen since early May.

U.S. CPI and Inflation Data in Focus

The dollar has enjoyed sustained strength following Donald Trump’s victory in the recent U.S. presidential election. The prospect of a Republican-controlled Congress has fueled expectations of inflationary policies, including lower taxes and increased tariffs.

Markets are now keenly focused on October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, a critical gauge of inflation. Economists project an annualized headline CPI increase to 2.6%, up from 2.4% in September. The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, is expected to hold steady at 3.3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.

These inflation figures will be pivotal for Federal Reserve policymakers as they deliberate on interest rate policy for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. ING analysts noted, “Dollar strength is pricing in much of Trump’s policy mix, and the data release, along with dovish Fed comments, could offer good opportunities to take profits on bullish dollar positions.”

Euro Struggles Amid German Political Uncertainty

In Europe, the EUR/USD was flat, trading at 1.0627, near its lowest level in a year. Political instability in Germany and anticipated tensions between the eurozone and the incoming Trump administration have weighed on the euro.

Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, is set for early elections on February 23, 2025, following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government last week. ING analysts suggested that markets are factoring in expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates further than the Fed, especially as tariffs potentially dampen eurozone growth.

Sterling Attempts Recovery Amid BOE Comments

The GBP/USD pair edged up to 1.2750, slightly above Tuesday’s three-month low of 1.2719. This follows last week’s second Bank of England rate cut this year.

Today, markets will focus on a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann, known for her hawkish views. ING remarked, “Mann’s comments may highlight the inflationary impact of the government’s spending boost, particularly focusing on sticky wage growth over the unemployment uptick in September.”

Yuan and Yen Reflect Diverging Trends

The USD/CNY fell 0.4% to 7.2064, showing signs of recovery from recent lows. This comes after the yuan hit three-month lows earlier this week, following subdued market reactions to Beijing’s fiscal measures amid rising U.S.-China tensions under the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY rose 0.2%, reaching 154.87, as Japan continues to grapple with political uncertainty and divergent monetary policies. Markets are betting that the gulf between U.S. and Japanese interest rates will persist for longer, exacerbated by Trump’s economic stance.

Conclusion

The dollar’s recent rally reflects heightened expectations of inflationary policies and potential rate adjustments, though upcoming inflation data and Fed commentary will be crucial in setting the next course. Meanwhile, political uncertainties in Europe and Japan continue to weigh on their respective currencies, further solidifying the dollar’s position as a safe haven.