EUR/USD The Pair Is Expected to Break Above the 1.06 Level

During Tuesday’s trading, the EUR/USD pair fluctuated between 1.0550 and 1.0600, initially attempting to move lower but recovering slightly to close down about 0.14% on the day. The latest Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation figures from the European Union provided little direction for traders. Meanwhile, dollar markets are left to contend with a relatively quiet economic calendar for the remainder of the week.

Headline HICP inflation in Europe was flat at 2.0% year-on-year for October, matching preliminary figures. This data failed to generate significant activity in euro markets and had minimal impact on the bid-ask spread. U.S. economic data also remains subdued until later in the week, when jobless claims and retail sales figures are set to be released.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy. The ECB is navigating a challenging landscape as inflation in Europe remains higher than expected, while the overall economy continues to show signs of slowing.

U.S. Data Outlook

Early-week U.S. economic data has been weak. Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits, scheduled for release on Thursday, are anticipated to show a slight uptick in new claims for the week ending November 15. U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) activity figures will follow later in the week, though their impact on investor sentiment is unlikely until Friday.

EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for November 20

The EUR/USD has declined approximately 6.5% since peaking slightly above 1.1200 in September, reaching a low near 1.0500 before staging a limited recovery toward 1.0600. Despite this short-term rally, the pair remains in bearish territory, with the price trading well below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is currently near 1.0900.

The recent bearish trend has seen the 50-day EMA dip below the long-term moving average, approaching 1.0800. If the current bullish momentum fades, significant activity from both buyers and sellers is likely near the 50-day EMA, which continues its downward trajecto