Outlook for the Week of June 09 – 13

The week of June 9 – 13 brings a full slate of potential market movers. In the U.S., attention turns to May’s CPI and PPI reports, along with consumer confidence data, which could either reinforce or challenge expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut amid signs of a slowing economy.

Trade tensions also loom large, with a U.S. appeals court ruling on Trump-era tariffs and tight deadlines for ongoing negotiations potentially impacting risk sentiment. In China, key trade and inflation data will offer insight into the effectiveness of the recent tariff truce and broader economic momentum. Meanwhile, in the UK, employment and GDP figures could test the resilience of the pound amid growing political pressure on the Labour government.

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Key Points to Watch This Week

• U.S. inflation could rebound in May, but is unlikely to shift Fed rate cut expectations.
• Focus remains on trade negotiations and the U.S. appeals court ruling on tariffs.
• China’s trade and inflation data take center stage amid the tariff truce.
• UK payrolls and GDP are also on the calendar.
  

Will the U.S. CPI Boost Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts?

Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut exceeding 50 basis points have grown recently, driven by disappointing U.S. economic indicators pointing to a broader slowdown. The first signs of strain from Trump-era global trade policies are emerging across the labor market, manufacturing, consumer spending, and services.

While inflation has cooled, investors expect the Fed to lean more dovishly to support growth. However, caution persists—especially with the July 9 deadline for the potential reintroduction of reciprocal tariffs. Policymakers may choose to wait for more clarity on trade developments before making a move.

Despite recent disinflationary trends, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, which could make officials hesitant to act too soon. A premature rate cut could backfire, especially if trade tensions escalate.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Wednesday, June 11, will be a crucial test. The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model estimates May headline inflation at 2.4% YoY, slightly above April’s 2.3%. Core CPI is expected to remain steady at 2.8% YoY.

Producer Prices and Consumer Confidence Also in Focus

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is scheduled for release on Thursday, June 12, offering further insight into upstream inflation pressures.

To close the week, the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment survey will update expectations on household spending and inflation outlook. Any softness in these reports could reinforce rate-cut expectations, weaken the U.S. dollar, and support equities.

Tariff Decision and Trade Talks to Shape Risk Appetite

Inflation won’t be the only driver this week. The U.S. Court of Appeals is expected to rule on whether to uphold a lower court’s decision blocking Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Both sides are set to present their arguments by June 9, although a final outcome could be delayed if the case escalates to the Supreme Court.

A ruling in favor of the administration would likely maintain the status quo. However, a ruling against the tariffs could slightly boost risk appetite.

Investors are also watching global trade negotiations closely. The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs expires July 9, and doubts remain about whether the U.S. can finalize any substantial deals before then.

Japan and India are seen as the most likely candidates for near-term agreements. Japan hopes to wrap up negotiations before Prime Minister Ishiba meets with Trump at the G7 Summit starting June 15. Meanwhile, speculation swirls around a potential surprise deal with Canada, following reports of direct talks between Prime Minister Carney and Trump.

U.S.–China Negotiations: Little Progress, High Stakes

U.S.–China dialogue has resumed, with Presidents Trump and Xi recently speaking by phone. Trump is also expected to make a state visit to China in the coming weeks. Still, a comprehensive deal remains elusive, and further volatility is likely.

Chinese trade data, due Monday, June 9, may offer a temporary lift to sentiment. The May 12 tariff truce could have supported export activity, although the timing may mask the full effect. Additionally, China’s consumer and producer price data are also expected on the same day.

Stronger-than-expected data from China could boost risk-sensitive assets, especially equities and the Australian dollar.

UK Economic Data Under Political Scrutiny

In the UK, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s signing of a preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. has been met with muted domestic reception. The Labour government faces criticism over cutting benefits, a lack of economic stimulus, and failure to secure more favorable trade terms.

Still, markets seem to support Starmer’s economic management. The pound sterling has reached a 3-year high, touching $1.36.

That said, challenges persist. Rising labor costs—driven by increases in social security contributions and the minimum wage—are weighing on businesses.

Investors will closely watch Tuesday’s employment report, covering the three months to April, for signs of layoffs and wage growth, both of which will influence the Bank of England’s cautious rate policy.

On Thursday, June 12, the April GDP report will provide insight into performance across services, manufacturing, and industrial production.

Unless the data surprises significantly, the pound’s reaction is likely to be muted, with broader risk sentiment and U.S. dollar movement playing a more decisive role in near-term currency dynamics.

Conclusion

This week is packed with influential data and high-stakes developments that could shape central bank expectations, risk appetite, and currency movements across global markets. Traders and investors alike will need to remain agile as inflation metrics, trade decisions, and political developments unfold across the U.S., China, and the UK.Trade with confidence — get the latest insights, tools, and technical analysis at OnEquity.com.