Outlook for Week of January 27 – 31

Key Points to Watch Out For:

• Three major central bank decisions amid growing tariff impacts on global markets.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to pause rate cuts, while the ECB and Bank of Canada are anticipated to continue easing.
• Key U.S. data includes GDP and PCE inflation reports.
• Australia’s CPI and China’s PMIs are critical for market sentiment.

Fed Expected to Pause Rate Cuts as Trump’s Second Presidency Begins

The Federal Reserve will take the spotlight this week, as it convenes for its first monetary policy meeting of the year. While the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada are expected to continue easing, the Fed is unlikely to reduce interest rates further.

The U.S. economy’s resilience, coupled with persistent inflationary pressures, limits the Fed’s room to maneuver. Despite this, the administration’s low-tax and high-tariff policies under President Trump have raised concerns about long-term inflation risks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the importance of remaining data-driven, signaling the potential for rate hikes if inflation accelerates under the new administration’s policies.

Although short-term inflation forecasts show some improvement, with analysts predicting a decline in price pressures in early 2025, the longer-term trajectory remains uncertain. Recent comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller hint at potential rate cuts in the first half of 2025, with markets currently pricing in a 30-basis-point reduction by year-end.

The U.S. dollar briefly weakened following Waller’s remarks, exacerbated by speculation over Trump’s lenient stance toward China in upcoming trade talks. The Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, January 29, will be pivotal. If rates remain unchanged but dovish signals hint at future cuts, market reactions may remain subdued unless additional Trump-related developments arise.

High Bar for a Dollar Correction

Aside from the Fed’s meeting, traders will focus on key U.S. data releases. Thursday’s advance Q4 2024 GDP estimate is expected to show a 2.6% annualized growth rate, down from 3.1% in Q3. A stronger-than-expected reading could offset dovish expectations from the Fed.

On Friday, the PCE inflation report and personal income and spending data will take center stage. The core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is forecast to hold steady at 2.8% year-over-year in December, while the headline PCE is projected to rise to 2.6%.

Other key U.S. releases include:

• New home sales (Monday, January 27)
• Durable goods orders and Consumer Confidence Index (Tuesday, January 28)
• Pending home sales (Thursday, January 30)
• Chicago PMI (Friday, January 31)

Optimism surrounding the Fed’s inflation outlook is unlikely to significantly weaken the dollar unless supported by data, especially if Trump continues a moderate trade stance with China.

Bank of Canada: A Flexible or Restrained Stance?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, January 29. Having been one of the most aggressive rate cutters globally, the BoC may implement another 25-basis-point reduction. Headline inflation fell to 1.8% in December, further justifying potential easing.

However, political uncertainty stemming from the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and looming U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports has added pressure to the Canadian dollar, which hovers near five-year lows against the U.S. dollar.

Upcoming wage growth data (Thursday, January 30) and monthly GDP figures (Friday, January 31) will provide further clarity on the BoC’s trajectory and could influence CAD sentiment.

ECB to Maintain Gradual Easing

The ECB is expected to continue its cautious approach, with a 25-basis-point rate cut anticipated at its meeting on Thursday, January 30. Market expectations for larger cuts remain low, given persistent inflation in the eurozone’s services sector and robust wage growth, which reached a 30-year high in Q3 2024.

Concerns about eurozone growth persist amid political instability in Germany and France, sluggish Chinese demand, and the threat of U.S. tariffs. ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to reaffirm the gradualism of monetary easing, maintaining market confidence while avoiding drastic policy changes.

The release of preliminary Q4 GDP estimates for the eurozone on Thursday could also influence market sentiment, with weaker growth potentially reinforcing dovish expectations.

Yen Stable Amid BoJ Hawkish Expectations

The yen has remained steady, buoyed by safe-haven flows and expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The BoJ recently raised its key rate to 0.5%, its highest level since 2008. However, the yen’s gains have been limited due to policy divergence with the Federal Reserve.

Traders will closely watch Japan’s January CPI data (Friday, January 31) and additional indicators like the Services PPI (Tuesday, January 28) and industrial production figures (Friday, January 31) for further direction on the BoJ’s policy stance.

China and Australia in Focus

China’s January manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday, January 27, followed by the Caixin/S&P Global PMI on Friday, January 31. Stronger-than-expected activity could provide a boost to risk-sensitive assets like the Australian dollar.

Australia’s CPI report, due Wednesday, January 29, will be the highlight for AUD traders. A weaker-than-expected reading could heighten speculation of a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting, potentially pressuring the Australian dollar.

Conclusion

This week’s highly anticipated events, including three central bank decisions, U.S. GDP and inflation data, and critical updates from China and Australia, will heavily influence global market sentiment.

The Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation and interest rates, coupled with key U.S. economic releases, will guide dollar performance. Meanwhile, developments from the BoC and ECB, along with eurozone growth data, will shape sentiment in the CAD and EUR markets.

In Asia-Pacific, China’s PMI data and Australia’s CPI will provide critical insights into economic resilience, with implications for AUD and risk-sensitive assets. Traders should stay alert, as geopolitical developments and trade dynamics under the Trump administration could add volatility to an already eventful week.