Presidential Election and Federal Reserve Meeting Send U.S. Stock Market into Turmoil

U.S. stock index futures rose Monday in cautious trading at the start of a week that brings a tight presidential election and a Federal Reserve meeting.

At the start of trading Monday, Dow Jones futures were up nearly 60 points, or about 0.1%, S&P 500 futures were up 12 points, or about 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were also up 12 points, or 0.2%.

Wall Street indexes booked losses of about 1% to #% the previous week, following a series of mixed results from large technology stocks.

Although earnings for the September quarter mostly exceeded estimates, a bleak outlook for several major stocks, including Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), alongside expectations of higher capital spending, weighed on key tech stocks.

Trump and Harris in a Tight Presidential Race

Investors were on edge ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election as recent polls indicated a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Rises in the dollar and Treasury yields suggest some investors are positioning positively for a Trump victory, which is expected to allow room for more inflationary policies. Analysts note that the election outcome could significantly impact market performance, especially in the tech sector. According to Wedbush analysts, a likely Trump victory is generating concern among tech investors worldwide due to the potential escalation of the U.S.-China tech conflict and rising tariffs.

“A major shift in tariffs and a tougher stance toward China, we believe, would significantly impact supply chains, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and potentially trigger Beijing’s retaliation against companies like Apple and Tesla, which could slow the pace of the AI revolution,” noted analysts led by Dan Ives in a report.

Earnings season continues this week, with reports from Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), and Diamondback Energy (FANG) scheduled for Monday. About one-fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 will report their latest quarterly results this week.

Fed Poised to Cut Interest Rates

Focus will also be on the Federal Reserve’s meeting, where the central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, following a 50-basis-point cut in September. Markets will be closely watching any Fed comments on future rate cut plans, especially given recent data showing the resilience of the U.S. economy and persistent inflation, which have tempered rate cut expectations.

Although it is unlikely that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will commit to any fixed pace of monetary easing, the Fed has so far adhered to a data-driven policy approach. The meeting comes after Friday’s nonfarm payroll data revealed that job growth slowed sharply in October, with downward revisions for the previous two months—a potential sign of a cooling labor market.

Oil Prices Soar After OPEC Decision

Oil prices surged on Monday after OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries, postponed a planned production increase for December by about a month due to recent price pressure from weak demand. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, announced on Sunday that they would delay an anticipated production increase of 180,000 barrels per day by at least a month.

This extension marks the second time a 2.2-million-barrel-per-day cut has been prolonged, suggesting that producing countries remain concerned about global demand.