Key Points to Watch Out For: Inflation Appears to Be Dollar-Friendly The U.S. dollar has emerged as a dominant force in 2024, a sharp reversal from the dynamics of 2023 when Europe and other global markets struggled with persistent inflation. The Federal Reserve’s efforts to combat inflation have yielded significant progress, setting it apart from […]
Outlook for the Week of December 09 – 13
Key Points to Watch Out For: Fed to Pause in January Following last week’s data, which showed U.S. inflation slightly higher than in October, market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week. However, the likelihood of a pause in January has climbed to […]
Outlook for the Week of December 2 – 6
Key Points to Watch Out For: NFP and ISM PMIs to Influence Fed Projections The U.S. dollar softened last week, retreating slightly after being temporarily boosted by President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats against China, Canada, and Mexico. Traders appeared to unwind Trump-related long positions ahead of Thanksgiving and in anticipation of this week’s major data […]
Outlook for the Week of November 25 – 29
Key Points to Watch Out For: RBNZ Readies for Its Third Rate Cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will kick off the year-end monetary policy meetings of major central banks with its decision on Wednesday, November 27. Having shifted policy significantly earlier this year, even before the Federal Reserve began easing, the RBNZ […]
Outlook for the Week of November 18 – 22
Key Points To Watch Out For: Trump Election Raises Bets on Fed Pause The U.S. dollar continued to show signs of strengthening for another week, with the so-called “Trump trades” remaining resilient. This is largely due to the president-elect’s Republican Party holding control of both houses of Congress, providing significant leverage for Donald Trump to […]
Outlook for the Week of November 11–15
Key Points To Watch Out For: U.S. CPI in Focus Amid Rate Cut Bets Post-Trump Win Donald Trump’s return to the White House has been met with market euphoria. Wall Street and Bitcoin hit historic highs, while the U.S. dollar surged to a four-month high, propelled by rising Treasury yields. Treasury yields, which had already […]
Outlook for the Week of November 4–8
Key Points to Watch: U.S. Election Impact on the Markets The U.S. dollar has strengthened recently, supported by optimistic data suggesting the Federal Reserve may not need to make another 50-basis-point rate cut for the remainder of 2024. Additionally, market bets are growing on a potential victory for Donald Trump and his return to the […]
Outlook for the Week of October 28 – November 1
Key points to watch out for: All Eyes on U.S. Data as the Fed Turns Hawkish In September, the Federal Reserve’s unexpected decision to cut rates by about 50 basis points appears to linger in the market’s memory, as policymakers have now taken a more hawkish stance. U.S. economic indicators since the September meeting have […]
Outlook for the Week of October 21-25
Key points to watch out for: Bank of Canada Likely to Cut Rates by Half a Point Estimates that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting have increased following the latest CPI data. However, markets are not entirely convinced that there will be a significant move, so […]
Outlook for the Week of October 14-18
Key points to watch out for: Is the ECB Rate Cut a Reality? After the RBNZ cut interest rates by 50 basis points last Wednesday, attention shifted to the ECB. Although Chair Lagarde and her colleagues initially did not support a rate cut for October, their stance began to shift following disappointing PMI data and […]