U.S. stock futures rise slightly before the release of key CPI data

U.S. stock index futures inched slightly higher on Monday, taking a breather after last week’s strong rally as investors looked ahead to pivotal inflation readings due later in the week.
At 06:00 ET (10:00 GMT), Dow Jones Futures were up 105 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 Futures rose 6 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures climbed 8 points, or 0.1%.

The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite closed at a new record high on Friday, lifted by a more than 13% surge in Apple shares last week—its biggest weekly advance since 2020. Other major indexes also posted solid gains over the week.

CPI to Headline Busy Data Calendar

Wall Street’s upbeat tone will be tested by a string of key economic releases, starting Tuesday with July’s U.S. consumer price index.

Producer price data is due Thursday, followed by retail sales figures and a consumer sentiment survey on Friday.

The disappointing July jobs report, which also revealed steep downward revisions to June and May figures, has fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next month. Inflation, the Fed’s other policy pillar, remains persistently above the 2% target. Added to that, the Trump administration’s increased tariffs on imports from several trade partners could place further upward pressure on domestic prices.

“Consensus is expecting another acceleration in core CPI, to 0.3% month-on-month (3.0% year-on-year), in this week’s July print,” analysts at ING noted. “Such a reading would likely be compatible with a September rate cut, given the backdrop of a much weaker labor market.”

China-U.S. Trade Talks Under Scrutiny

Beyond economic indicators, investors are keeping a close watch as the August 12 deadline for a tariff truce between the U.S. and China draws near.

Washington and Beijing have made progress toward a deal, according to President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, but no formal agreement has been signed. Both sides, meeting in Stockholm, agreed to pursue an extension of the tariff pause.

Separately, Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15—the first in-person meeting between a U.S. and Russian leader since June 2021—in a bid to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.

Nvidia and AMD in the Spotlight

While second-quarter earnings have largely exceeded forecasts, market reactions have been unusually strong, suggesting investors are focusing more on company-specific performance than macroeconomic trends, Barclays analysts said.

Monday’s earnings calendar is light, but Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) will be in focus after reports that both chipmakers may be required to pay the U.S. government 15% of profits from AI-related sales to China.

Shares of C3.ai (AI) dropped sharply in after-hours trading following a weaker-than-expected preliminary earnings update.

Oil Prices Steady Before Ukraine Talks

Crude oil prices steadied Monday after last week’s sharp drop, with traders awaiting U.S.-Russia talks later this week regarding the conflict in Ukraine.

At 06:00 ET, Brent futures were up slightly at $65.60 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dipped 0.1% to $63.85.

Both benchmarks lost more than 4% last week as the announcement of the upcoming Trump-Putin meeting fueled speculation over a potential resolution to sanctions that have curbed Russian oil supply to global markets.