U.S. stock futures rise moderately before July inflation data

U.S. stock index futures moved slightly higher on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance before the release of crucial inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy path.

At 05:55 ET (09:55 GMT), Dow Jones Futures rose 75 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 Futures added 8 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 Futures gained 20 points, or 0.1%.

Major Wall Street averages closed lower in the prior session, although both the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and the broad-based S&P 500 remain near record highs, supported by a largely strong second-quarter earnings season.

Markets appeared to largely overlook President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day extension to the U.S.–China trade truce, made just ahead of the August 12 deadline.

CPI data in focus

The July consumer price index (CPI) will take center stage on Tuesday.
Economists expect headline inflation to accelerate to 2.8% year-over-year, with a 0.2% monthly gain. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 3.0% annually and 0.3% on a monthly basis.

Following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report and significant downward revisions for May and June, market pricing now reflects roughly a 90% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.

Any upside surprise in inflation could temper policymakers’ rate-cut ambitions, particularly as the Fed has recently adopted a more cautious approach amid concerns that Trump’s tariff policies could fuel price pressures.

Trump has sharply criticized the central bank for holding back on deeper, immediate rate reductions—a stance that saw notable internal dissent during the Fed’s July policy meeting.

Trump nominates new BLS chief

Investors will also weigh Trump’s nomination of economist E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following his dismissal of Erika McEntarfer earlier this month after the release of the disappointing jobs data.

The Senate must confirm the appointment. Trump accused McEntarfer—without offering evidence—of manipulating employment figures for political purposes.

Corporate movers

Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI) jumped in premarket trade after the U.S. television station owner said it was exploring potential mergers or a spinoff of its ventures unit.

Celanese (CE) slid after warning of weaker demand across most key end-markets for the second half of the year.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) advanced after reporting second-quarter results that beat analyst expectations.

Pony Ai (PONY) rose after the Chinese autonomous taxi operator posted a surge in second-quarter revenue and reaffirmed its year-end vehicle delivery target.

Oil holds steady after tariff truce

Crude prices were steady on Tuesday after the U.S. and China agreed to extend the pause on additional tariffs, easing concerns over demand in the world’s two largest oil-consuming nations.

At 09:55 ET, Brent crude futures gained 0.1% to $66.64 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dipped 0.1% to $63.88 per barrel.

Adding another potential market driver, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday to discuss a possible resolution to the war in Ukraine.