US Dollar Weakens, Euro Stays Firm with Services Data in Focus
The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Friday, trading near 1.1735 at the time of writing after recovering from Thursday’s low of 1.1685. A slight improvement in global risk sentiment weighed on the safe-haven US Dollar and supported the Euro, even as revised Eurozone services activity data came in softer than first estimated.
The final HCOB Services PMI showed that the bloc’s activity expanded at 51.3 in September, down marginally from the earlier 51.4 estimate. Italy and Spain recorded stronger-than-expected results, while Germany missed forecasts slightly, and France extended its contraction. Although growth remains fragile, this marks the sector’s best performance since January, suggesting resilience at the end of the third quarter.
US Labor Market Weakens, Fed Officials Push Back on Aggressive Cuts
In the United States, Challenger Job Cuts data indicated layoffs fell in September. However, hiring plans slumped to their lowest level since 2009, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. The Dollar initially gained support from hawkish comments by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who warned against cutting interest rates too quickly.
Logan noted that while she backed the 25-basis-point reduction in September, she does not favor another cut at the October meeting, adding that the Fed must avoid rushing into a deeper easing cycle. Her stance dampened market hopes for aggressive rate cuts, providing the Dollar some near-term stability.
US Government Shutdown Delays Payroll Data
The ongoing US government shutdown has postponed the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, leaving traders without a critical data point this week. In its absence, attention now shifts to Friday’s US services data and speeches from key policymakers.
ECB’s Isabel Schnabel and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson are set to speak later in the day, with their remarks likely to influence EUR/USD’s short-term trajectory. Meanwhile, the US S&P Global Services PMI is expected to ease slightly to 53.9 in September from 54.5, while the ISM Services PMI is forecast to dip to 51.7 from 52.0, signaling a moderate slowdown but continued expansion.
Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.1760
EUR/USD continues to trade sideways, caught in a narrow range between 1.1700 and 1.1760. Momentum indicators reflect indecision, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index hovering near the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD remains flat.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1760, followed by the 1.1800 zone aligned with a reverse trendline from late August. A sustained break above these levels would open the door to renewed bullish momentum.
On the downside, initial support lies at Thursday’s low of 1.1685, with stronger levels at 1.1645–1.1655. A break below could expose the September lows near 1.1610. Until a clear catalyst emerges, EUR/USD is likely to remain range-bound.
