Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Weekly Market Outlook | 3 – 7 Nov

November 4, 2025 OnEquity

The week of November 3–7 brings a loaded calendar of macro data and earnings news that could shape market tone for the rest of Q4. In the U.S., economic releases such as the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, payroll data and consumer confidence will be closely watched amid a prolonged government shutdown that has clouded key official metrics. Globally, central-bank meetings and policy signals (notably from the Bank of England) will be paired with corporate results from major tech and consumer firms, as investors attempt to assess whether the recent rally has legs or is vulnerable to a correction. 

Key Points to Watch Out For

  • U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs (early week) may show whether business activity is holding up amid the data blackout. 
  • Payroll and consumer confidence data (Friday) could either support further risk-asset enthusiasm or prompt caution. 
  • Central-bank commentary, especially from the Bank of England, is expected to maintain a “data-dependent but cautious” tone. 
  • Major earnings from tech & consumer giants (e.g., via Ki-Wealth earnings calendar) will test valuations.
  • The U.S. government shutdown remains a wild card—delayed or missing data may heighten volatility and reduce transparency.

United States: Data & Earnings Under the Spotlight

In the U.S., the week is front-loaded with business-activity surveys, including the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, which will offer a timely read when many official releases remain suspended. Later in the week, key employment, consumer sentiment and earnings reports (notably from tech and consumer companies) will further inform whether risk assets remain supported or face a pullback. Should data surprise on the downside, markets may reassess the pace of earnings growth and tighten valuations.

Europe & UK: Policy Stability vs. Growth Concerns

In Europe and the UK, the policy backdrop remains broadly stable, but growth concerns persist. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady while maintaining an easing bias, according to S&P Global. Meanwhile, economic activity remains sluggish, with PMI surveys showing muted momentum. Lack of improvement in consumer demand or business confidence could weigh on sterling and regional equities.

Market Sentiment & Currency Dynamics

A broader theme this week is the strength of the US Dollar as it hovers near a three-month peak in anticipation of key U.S. data and policy cues, while other major currencies such as the yen and euro face pressure amid divergent central-bank stances and trade developments. The ongoing trade truce between the U.S. and China has boosted risk appetite, particularly in Asia, but a narrow-based rally and top-heavy market breadth suggest caution for investors positioning for a broader breakout. 

Global Themes & Risk Drivers

Beyond regional data, several global themes will influence market sentiment: earnings-related valuation pressure (particularly in tech), the lingering impact of the U.S. government shutdown on data transparency, and the ongoing interaction of inflation, rates and growth. The elevated risk of correction given recent strong gains and stretched valuations. 

Conclusion

This week may not bring a dramatic policy shift, but the accumulation of economic surprises (good or bad) and corporate results could shift market trajectories. If business-activity prints hold up and earnings beat expectations, risk assets may extend upside momentum into November. Conversely, weak data or disappointing earnings might prompt a reassessment of valuations and increase volatility. Investors should proceed with a balanced stance, monitoring key data releases and corporate signals closely.