Weekly Market Outlook | 24 – 28 Nov

The week of November 24–28 is shaping up as an event-filled, albeit holiday-shortened period for global markets. Investors will focus on delayed U.S. data such as retail sales and producer prices, while anticipation builds around the Federal Reserve’s next move amid rising odds of a December rate cut. At the same time, currency watchers are monitoring potential intervention by the Bank of Japan to support the yen ahead of a low-liquidity window. In Europe, fiscal signals from the UK budget and business-sentiment surveys will add to the data mix.

Key Points to Watch

• U.S. retail sales and PPI reports, some delayed by the government shutdown, will provide critical insight into consumer strength and inflation.
  
• The Fed’s tone and implied policy trajectory (including the probability of a December cut) remain central to dollar and risk-asset dynamics.
  
• The yen remains under pressure and could prompt official intervention by Japan during the low-liquidity week.
  
• The UK budget and European business-sentiment indicators may test investor confidence amid global growth concerns.
  
• Holiday-week liquidity risks (Thursday closed, early Friday) may amplify market moves if surprises emerge.

United States: Consumer & Inflation Signals

In the U.S., attention turns to delayed data, including September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which were postponed due to the government shutdown. These releases will indicate whether consumer spending is cooling under inflation pressure and whether wholesale inflation is still elevated, which would impact the Fed’s considerations. 

Meanwhile, the Fed’s implied odds of a December rate cut are rising, but internal divisions remain, making any deviation in inflation or spending data a potential trigger for market re-pricing. Investors will also monitor corporate earnings and holiday-season spending trends for clues about Q4 economic momentum.

Europe & UK: Fiscal Signals and Business Sentiment

In Europe and the UK, focus will centre on the UK’s upcoming government budget, business sentiment surveys, and data ahead of year-end. A hawkish or fiscal-tight tone from the UK could weigh on sterling and UK equities, while weak sentiment in continental Europe may reinforce concerns that the economic recovery remains fragile. With inflation still on the radar, policymakers may remain cautious about moving toward any major easing. Additional pressure may come from rising sovereign-borrowing costs, which could shape fiscal priorities heading into 2026.

Japan & Currency Watch: Yen Intervention Risk

Japan’s yen remains in the spotlight, having recently hit a ten-month low near ¥157.90/US$. With the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday creating a period of low market liquidity, the Ministry of Finance (Japan) and the BoJ may seize the opportunity to intervene in FX markets. Any official action could trigger sharp moves in JPY crosses and spillover into global risk assets. Japanese inflation and wage data, also scheduled this week, will influence expectations about future BoJ tightening or continued policy patience.

Global Themes & Risk-Asset Drivers

Holiday‐week dynamics heighten the risk of volatile moves as fewer participants may exaggerate price shifts. Other overarching themes include the interplay between consumer inflation, central-bank policy, currency stability (especially yen strength), and holiday-season spending. Markets will also remain alert to external shocks in commodities or geopolitics that could act as catalysts. Energy prices, Middle-East tensions, and China’s demand outlook remain critical variables shaping cross-asset sentiment.

Conclusion

Investors head into this short week with a mixed deck: delayed U.S. data, central-bank expectations, currency risk, and liquidity constraints. If retail spending or PPI surprises to the upside, it could reduce confidence in near-term Fed easing and strengthen the dollar, potentially weighing on equities and risk assets. On the other hand, softer data or delayed intervention might support risk-taking but hinge on how markets interpret the Fed’s next steps. Careful positioning and readiness for rapid shifts remain key. Overall, traders should brace for sudden price swings driven more by liquidity gaps than by fundamentals.