Weekly Market Outlook | 26 – 30 Jan 2026

Weekly Market Outlook | 26 – 30 Jan 2026

Markets last week navigated sharp volatility following President Trump’s tariff threats on European imports amid Greenland-related tensions, before a rapid de-escalation helped limit downside pressure. Positive macro data included a Q3 GDP revision to 4.4% annualised and steady November PCE inflation at 2.8% year-on-year. The week was characterised by dramatic price action in commodities, which outpaced relatively muted moves in major equity indices. Natural gas was the standout performer, surging more than 70% as a severe cold spell across the Northern Hemisphere collided with tight supply–demand dynamics. In precious metals, silver continued its vertical ascent, rising approximately 44% since the start of the month to test levels above USD 100/oz, while gold remained supported near USD 4,890/oz, buoyed by a weaker dollar and renewed safe-haven demand driven by U.S. tariff rhetoric toward Europe and unconventional Greenland policy discussions.

Key Points to Watch

• The FOMC meeting on 28 January will dominate the week, with rates expected to remain steady at 3.50%–3.75%. Focus will be on Chair Powell’s commentary for signals on the pace of potential easing in 2026 amid resilient growth and sticky inflation.
• Mega-cap earnings begin in earnest, with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla reporting on 28 January, followed by Apple on 29 January. Guidance on AI investment, margins, and growth will be critical for technology-sector sentiment.
• U.S. consumer confidence data on Tuesday, alongside potential wholesale inflation updates, may offer insight into spending trends amid ongoing policy uncertainty.

Fed Outlook, Data, and Earnings Focus

The FOMC meeting on Wednesday is the week’s gravitational center. Following three rate cuts at the end of 2025, the market is pricing in a pause. However, the December dot plot suggests only one additional cut for the entirety of 2026, a stance that contrasts with market expectations for more aggressive easing. Any shift in Chair Powell’s tone—whether acknowledging recent cooling in selected inflation metrics or reinforcing a “higher for longer” stance due to resilient GDP—is likely to trigger immediate volatility in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, with the 10-year currently hovering near 4.25%.

U.S. Earnings: The High-Stakes Tech Test

This is arguably the most important earnings week of the quarter for equity bulls. Markets are looking for more than headline beats; strong forward guidance is required to justify current valuation multiples.

• Tuesday: UPS, Boeing, General Motors, UnitedHealth
  
• Wednesday: Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, IBM
  
• Thursday: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Visa
  
• Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, offering insight into how energy majors are navigating volatile oil and gas conditions

Commodities: Can the Rally Sustain?

Gold and silver remain in overbought territory across multiple technical timeframes. However, with growing macro commentary highlighting a structural shift toward hard assets amid rising fiscal-debt concerns, any pullbacks continue to be aggressively bought. Natural gas remains the primary wildcard. Should the cold snap persist, further supply constraints could push prices toward multi-year highs, adding a stagflationary dimension to the global macro outlook.

Europe and the United Kingdom: Fragile Recovery Meets Geopolitical Risk

European markets will focus on the Eurozone Q4 GDP release on Friday. Consensus forecasts point to modest annual growth of around 1.3%, though the recovery remains uneven, with German industrial production still constrained by elevated energy costs and structural headwinds. In the UK, sterling enters the week under pressure as markets assess the Bank of England’s cautious path toward further rate cuts amid a cooling labour market. Political attention in London will centre on the Finance Bill and renewed debate over a potential UK–EU customs union, as the government navigates a challenging fiscal environment. The prospect of renewed U.S. tariffs linked to Greenland-related policy discussions remains a systemic risk, potentially capping upside for both the euro and sterling in an increasingly protectionist global trade backdrop.

Asia: Yen Volatility and China’s Balancing Act

In Asia, attention remains fixed on the Japanese yen following Friday’s sharp “rate check” and subsequent move from near 160 to 157.37. While the Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.75%, the Ministry of Finance has clearly entered a heightened alert phase, with Prime Minister Takaichi reiterating readiness to act against “speculative market moves.” Reports of potential coordinated U.S.–Japan intervention gained traction after indications of New York Fed market activity, which, if confirmed, would signal a concerted effort to stabilise the yen against a strong U.S. dollar. In China, data continues to reflect “revenue without profit,” with December industrial profits expected to remain flat amid persistent cost pressures. Markets will closely monitor NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI releases (due Friday/Saturday) for evidence that recent stimulus measures are filtering into the real economy ahead of the Lunar New Year.

Conclusion

Markets enter the 26–30 January period at both a technical and fundamental crossroads. The convergence of a key Fed meeting and the most consequential technology earnings of the quarter creates a distinctly binary environment for risk assets. While the commodity rally has provided an effective hedge, equity markets require a decisive signal from either monetary policy or Big Tech leadership to break January’s malaise. In this context, disciplined positioning, liquidity awareness, and defensive risk management remain essential for the week ahead.