South Africa enters 2026 on a cautiously constructive trajectory. Headline inflation moderated to 3.6% in December, enabling the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to maintain its policy rate at 6.75% at its late-January meeting. This calibrated stance underscores rising institutional credibility around the SARB’s revised 3% inflation target, lowered from the previous 4.5% midpoint, and […]
Emerging market currencies have experienced a particularly strong two-month period, appreciating significantly against the U.S. dollar. Since 5 November—marking the recent relative peak of the greenback against several major currencies—the euro has strengthened by 3.84% versus the USD. However, higher-beta currencies such as the South African rand (ZAR) and the Mexican peso (MXN) have outperformed […]
The first major macroeconomic data point of the week is just around the corner: U.S. Retail Sales. The American consumer alone accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, while the retail sector represents 6.2% of GDP and is the largest private employer in the country. These figures alone explain why this release consistently attracts close […]
It appears that in last night’s elections in Japan, President Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is on track to secure a supermajority. According to NHK reports, the LDP is projected to win 273 seats and its coalition partner, Ishin, 24 seats in the Lower House as of 11:30 p.m. local time. This outcome would give […]
While this note focuses primarily on Amazon—following the company’s earnings release after yesterday’s market close and the subsequent 10% decline in after-hours trading—it is impossible to ignore the broader market dynamics that unfolded during the previous session, which was marked by a pronounced risk-off move across asset classes. Commodities led the sell-off. Precious metals recorded […]
Today marks a key policy day, with interest rate decisions due from both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The latter is of particular interest. The UK economy has been slowing steadily over recent quarters. Annual GDP growth has decelerated from 1.9% in Q4 2024 to 1.3% in the same period of […]
At one point yesterday, the Nasdaq (US100) was down as much as 2.3%, pushing the tech-heavy index into negative territory for the year. The intraday low was 25,112, compared with the 31 December 2025 close of 25,249, implying a year-to-date decline of 0.54%. The index later rebounded to 25,338 before closing the session down 1.55%. […]
While volatility across multiple asset classes has increased steadily over recent weeks—something we have all observed—the VIX index, which reflects equity market volatility and more specifically options on the S&P 500 maturing within 30 days, has remained relatively subdued. To be fair, the VIX has attempted to rebound a couple of times over the past […]
Over the past several weeks, we have repeatedly discussed the powerful rally in precious metals. It was hard to ignore: silver had risen by +69.66% in just one month, up to Thursday, January 29. The move appeared unstoppable and—frankly—illogical, difficult to justify on fundamental grounds, and above all imprudent. Plausible explanations did exist: silver’s growing […]
Global equity markets are lower this morning following yesterday’s turbulence in gold and other precious metals. XAUUSD, after reaching $5,600, experienced heavy profit-taking that pushed prices down toward $5,030 before closing at -1.35% (currently down a further 4.38% today). In addition, markets are expecting President Trump to announce the next Fed Chair later today (U.S. […]
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