A few weeks ago, at the beginning of January, when crude oil was finally rebounding from the $57.5–$60 area, we highlighted the importance of the $66 level—a threshold that had acted as a floor since 2022 and had been broken to the downside only last April. Admittedly, according to OPEC and EIA data, the world […]
A few minutes before the release of a new set of UK price data—covering consumer, producer, and retail figures—virtually every macroeconomic indicator published in the United Kingdom over the past two weeks has pointed to a stagnating economy and strongly argues in favor of a rate cut at the next Bank of England meeting. The […]
It has not been a good month so far for the US500 (S&P 500), and we are only on February 17. The index’s month-to-date performance currently stands at -1.48%, which has also pushed the year-to-date return into negative territory (-0.33% as of last Friday’s close at 6,836). This morning, following yesterday’s market holiday, the index […]
Today is a public holiday in both the United States and Canada, and markets in China will remain closed for the entire week. The macroeconomic calendar is light, aside from the already released and disappointing Japanese GDP data. More broadly, markets are reopening in a subdued and lethargic tone following the weekend. Against this backdrop, […]
There was a time—not long ago—when the digital economy was far less developed, and any competent market analyst could not ignore a particular index: the Dow Jones Transportation Average. This index is effectively the sibling of the US30, more properly known in full as the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The underlying concept is straightforward: to […]
South Africa enters 2026 on a cautiously constructive trajectory. Headline inflation moderated to 3.6% in December, enabling the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to maintain its policy rate at 6.75% at its late-January meeting. This calibrated stance underscores rising institutional credibility around the SARB’s revised 3% inflation target, lowered from the previous 4.5% midpoint, and […]
Emerging market currencies have experienced a particularly strong two-month period, appreciating significantly against the U.S. dollar. Since 5 November—marking the recent relative peak of the greenback against several major currencies—the euro has strengthened by 3.84% versus the USD. However, higher-beta currencies such as the South African rand (ZAR) and the Mexican peso (MXN) have outperformed […]
The first major macroeconomic data point of the week is just around the corner: U.S. Retail Sales. The American consumer alone accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, while the retail sector represents 6.2% of GDP and is the largest private employer in the country. These figures alone explain why this release consistently attracts close […]
It appears that in last night’s elections in Japan, President Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is on track to secure a supermajority. According to NHK reports, the LDP is projected to win 273 seats and its coalition partner, Ishin, 24 seats in the Lower House as of 11:30 p.m. local time. This outcome would give […]
While this note focuses primarily on Amazon—following the company’s earnings release after yesterday’s market close and the subsequent 10% decline in after-hours trading—it is impossible to ignore the broader market dynamics that unfolded during the previous session, which was marked by a pronounced risk-off move across asset classes. Commodities led the sell-off. Precious metals recorded […]
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