Dollar Firms Ahead of Fed Minutes as Sterling Strengthens on CPI

The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes, followed by the annual Jackson Hole symposium, both expected to provide fresh signals on the central bank’s monetary policy outlook.

At 04:55 ET (08:55 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, was up 0.1% at 98.190, building on a cumulative 0.4% gain in the first two sessions of the week.

Fed minutes in focus

With little progress reported on the Ukraine front in the past day, investors are squarely focused on the Fed minutes, due later in the day.

The central bank has held rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% band throughout the year, though policymakers — including Chair Jerome Powell — have voiced concerns that tariff measures from the Trump administration could stoke inflationary pressures.

This cautious stance has drawn sharp criticism from President Donald Trump, while some Fed officials have recently diverged, openly advocating for rate cuts.

The minutes could shed light on these divisions, particularly after Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented at the last meeting, marking the first dual dissent since 1993.

“The minutes will provide more detail on the dissenting views of Waller and Bowman, who supported a rate cut in July,” analysts at ING wrote in a note. “That said, market reaction may be muted since the July employment report was released soon afterward. Greater clarity is likely to come on Friday with Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.”

The Jackson Hole symposium begins with informal discussions ahead of the formal agenda on Thursday evening. Powell’s keynote on Friday morning is expected to outline the Fed’s economic outlook.

“In short, we don’t expect major moves in the DXY today and see strong resistance near 98.50/60,” ING added.

Sterling gains after U.K. inflation

In Europe, EUR/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.1638 in subdued trading.

Eurozone CPI data, due later Wednesday, is projected to confirm that annual inflation held steady at 2.0% in July, in line with the European Central Bank’s medium-term target.

“EUR/USD is likely to stay within tight ranges, with little impetus to break below 1.1590/1600 today,” ING noted.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD rose 0.1% to 1.3497 after U.K. inflation surprised to the upside. Consumer prices rose 3.8% year-on-year in July, accelerating from 3.6% in June and above forecasts of 3.7%, marking the highest level since January 2024.

Despite the pickup, analysts at Capital Economics still see room for a potential rate cut in November but flagged risks that stronger inflation expectations and wage growth could push the next move into 2026.

Kiwi dollar tumbles after rate cut

Elsewhere, USD/JPY edged 0.1% lower to 147.58, while USD/CNY was marginally weaker at 7.1787 after the People’s Bank of China left its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, holding the one-year at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%, as anticipated.

AUD/USD slipped 0.3% to 0.6434, while NZD/USD dropped 1.3% to 0.5818 — its lowest since mid-April — after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00% on Wednesday. The bank also indicated that further easing could follow if disinflation persists.

The Monetary Policy Committee voted 4-2 for the smaller cut, with two members favoring a 50-basis-point move.