EUR/USD Poised for a Breakout as ECB Decision Takes the Spotlight
The EUR/USD pair traded with limited volatility on Thursday, December 18, 2025, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision. The pair remained supported near recent highs, reflecting a balance between mild US Dollar strength and persistent demand for the Euro.
The US Dollar maintained a firm tone against major peers as markets weighed mixed US economic data and broader risk sentiment. While the greenback benefited from relative yield support, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s longer-term policy direction continued to cap its upside, preventing sustained downside pressure on the Euro.
ECB policy direction in focus as Lagarde shapes expectations
Market attention is now fully centered on the ECB’s policy announcement, with policymakers widely expected to maintain their current stance. With no major policy change anticipated, investors are instead focusing on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, which is expected to provide crucial insight into how policymakers assess inflation trends, economic resilience, and the monetary policy outlook beyond the near term.
Recent indicators suggest the eurozone economy remains relatively resilient, even as growth momentum shows signs of cooling. Inflation pressures have eased compared to earlier peaks, giving the ECB room to maintain a cautious and data-dependent approach. Any indication that policymakers are comfortable keeping policy restrictive for longer could strengthen the Euro, while a more cautious tone may encourage short-term consolidation.
Bullish technical structure keeps EUR/USD supported
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD continues to trade within a constructive structure, with price action holding above key support zones that have repeatedly attracted buying interest. This behavior reinforces the broader bullish bias and suggests that downside risks remain limited unless market sentiment shifts sharply.
On the upside, recent highs continue to act as an important resistance area. A clear move beyond this zone could reinforce bullish momentum and pave the way for further gains. Momentum indicators remain supportive, though traders are refraining from aggressive positioning ahead of the ECB announcement, with volatility expected to increase following official communication.
Overall, the near-term direction of EUR/USD will be driven primarily by ECB messaging, particularly how policymakers frame risks to inflation and growth. Until clearer guidance emerges, the pair is likely to remain supported, tracking central bank rhetoric and broader US Dollar dynamics.
