US100 Rallies on Unconfirmed News
At 17:35 GMT yesterday, major international news agencies circulated a report stating that Iranian President Pezeshkian had told Islamic Republic News Agency: “We’re ready to end war, but want guarantees.” This headline triggered a sharp rally in equities, while both oil and the U.S. dollar declined significantly within minutes.
However, a key issue has emerged: despite the widespread distribution of the story, the original source on IRNA’s official communication channels remains untraceable. This adds to the increasingly frequent stream of statements from Donald Trump—often at odds with developments on the ground—who has announced plans to address the nation on the war on Wednesday evening at 9:00 PM ET.
With the Easter period approaching—typically characterized by thinner trading volumes—and the quarter having just concluded with last-minute portfolio rebalancing, markets were already hovering near oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the structural issues within the energy market remain unresolved, and even a potential resolution to the conflict would be unlikely to prevent prolonged aftereffects at this stage.
Global indices nonetheless moved higher, with technology stocks—previously subject to heavy selling—leading the rebound. Notable performers included GOOGL (+5.02%), AMZN (+3.64%), META (+6.67%), and NVDA (+5.59%).
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Just last week, the US100 finally broke below the 23,950 support level, which had served as a solid floor since the beginning of the sideways phase in September 2025—an unequivocally bearish signal. Constrained beneath a clearly defined downtrend and with declining moving averages, opportunistic buyers began to re-emerge around 22,900, a secondary support level. With the market in oversold territory, many participants were positioning for a rebound—though its sustainability remains uncertain.
Zooming into the 30-minute timeframe provides a more granular view. First, the minor short-term downtrend line has been broken. The natural upside targets now appear to be twofold: the first is a retest of 23,950 from below. It cannot be ruled out that this level may be breached in a volatile or “dirty” move which—despite its technical significance—could extend prices toward approximately 24,450.
In the interim, attention should be paid to intermediate resistance levels at 24,125 and 24,290.
Overall stance: caution is warranted.
