IBEX 35 and the Dynamism of the Spanish Economy
Peripheral markets have performed well so far in 2025—speaking about Europe: the Spanish IBEX 35 ( you will find it as ESP35Cash) is leading the gains with +40.92%, followed at a distance by the Italian FTSE MIB (+26.02%). Further behind are the core markets and Europe’s main laggard, France (CAC +9.99%).
Spain’s economy has been outperforming much of Western Europe for years, at least in terms of several key macroeconomic fundamentals—though not all of them (annual GDP growth at +2.8% but persistently high unemployment at 10.45%).
It is important to remember that a country’s economic fundamentals do not necessarily correlate strongly with the companies represented in its equity index. Today, most firms are multinational, with a significant share of their business generated outside their country of origin. Even so, domestic market conditions and the cost of funding remain critical: Spain’s sovereign risk profile and its 10-year bond yield have now long been safer not only than Greece, Portugal, and Italy, but also France (10Y ES 3.174%, 10Y FR 3.41%).
For an index dominated by financials (BBVA, Santander, CaixaBank) and capital-intensive names (ACS among others), this is a decisive factor.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The IBEX 35 has been rallying strongly since the end of the global bear market in 2022: in October of that year it traded at 7,200, and by Friday’s close it stood at 16,371.60 (+125.25%).
A clear upward trend has been in place since autumn 2022, validated repeatedly—in October 2023, August 2024, and April 2025. In fact, since the August 2024 low near 10,300, price momentum accelerated, forming a steeper trendline that was only briefly challenged during the tariffs-related turmoil of April this year.
Recently, the index found support at the 50-day moving average near 15,724 after hitting a peak at 16,661. A minor bearish divergence is visible on the RSI, and only a breakout above the previous highs (current price: 16,371.60) would provide renewed upside momentum.
Among single names, it’s worth noting the weakness in several large caps—from Acciona to Telefónica—though the financial sector continues to provide solid support.
Above current levels, the first area of interest is the bearish gap opened on 14 November at 16,575. On the downside, key levels to monitor are 16.200, 16.050, and then 15.750 (very close to where the 50-day moving average is likely to converge again). The steeper trendline currently runs near 15,400, which is also an important support/resistance level.
The IBEX 35 remains a compelling play, but—as with several assets we have reviewed in recent days—it may be worth exercising some patience in pursuit of more attractive entry points.
