Skip to content
Risk warning: Our products are leveraged and carry a high level of risk, which can result in the loss of your entire capital. Such products may not be suitable for all investors. It is crucial to understand the risks involved fully.
  • Support
  • For Institutionals
  • Trading

    Trading Platforms

    • MetaTrader 4 Terminal
    • MetaTrader 5 Terminal
    • PAMM Accounts
    • Equinix Trading Server

    Markets coverage

    • Forex Currencies
    • Spot Metals
    • Commodities

     

    • CFDs on Stocks
    • Indices
    • CFDs on Crypto

    Start Trading

    • Standard Accounts For individuals
    • Institutional Account For professionals
    • Deposits & Withdrawals
  • Conditions

    Trading Conditions

    • Spreads Overview
    • Swap-Free
    • Leverage Information

     

    • CFD Specifications
    • Full Trading Conditions

    Invest on your terms

    Transparent pricing, reduced trading costs, and leverage that adapts to your strategy.

    Explore conditions
  • Tools
    • Weekly Outlook
    • Daily Technical
    • Market Commentary
    • Economic Calendar
    • News & Insights
  • About
    • About OnEquity
    • Company News
    • Legal Documentation
    • Client Protection
    • Help & Support
    • FAQs
  • Partners
Edit Content
  • English
    ACTIVE
Other languages:
  • Español – Spanish
  • Português – Portuguese
  • English – International
  • Trading
    • Markets Coverage
    • MetaTrader 5 Platform
    • MetaTrader 4 Platform
    • Standard Accounts
    • Institutional Account
    • PAMM Accounts
    • Equinix Trading Server
    • Deposits & Withdrawals
  • Conditions
    • Spreads Overview
    • Leverage Information
    • Swap-Free Trading
    • CFD Specifications
    • Full Trading Conditions
  • Tools
    • Daily Technical
    • Weekly Outlook
    • Market Commentary
    • Economic Calendar
    • News & Insights
  • About
    • About OnEquity
    • Company News
    • Legal Documentation
    • Client Protection
    • Help & Support
    • FAQs
  • Partners
  • Client Portal
  • Open Account
Edit Content
  • English
    ACTIVE
Other languages:
  • Español – Spanish
  • Português – Portuguese
  • English – International
Open Account
Client Portal
Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Outlook for the Week of June 23 – 27

June 24, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 23–27 could prove pivotal for global markets, as investors navigate a mix of economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., attention will center on core PCE and consumer spending data, alongside Fed Chair Powell’s testimony—all under the shadow of tariff impacts and slowing consumption. Europe awaits June PMIs and Germany’s Ifo index for clues on economic resilience, while sterling faces headwinds despite strong PMIs and trade momentum. Inflation reports from Canada, Australia, and Japan will also guide rate expectations, as markets remain cautious amid the escalating Israel–Iran conflict and its implications for oil, currencies, and global risk sentiment.

For additional insights into market movements, explore our educational hub at https://hub.onequity.com, where you can access updated financial data, analysis, and trading resources.

Key Points To Watch Out For:

  • Tensions between Israel and Iran will keep risk appetite in check.
  • Data on core PCE and consumption in the U.S. may bring some much-needed relief.
  • CPI data will be published in Canada, Australia, and Japan.
  • Preliminary PMIs for June will be in focus amid tariff uncertainty.

Markets Watching U.S. Data Amid Economic and Geopolitical Uncertainty

Recent U.S. economic data has painted a mixed picture. While inflationary pressures remain moderate despite the 10% tariff on most imports, and the labor market continues to show resilience, consumer spending appears to be weakening. This has raised concerns that structural cracks may be emerging beneath the surface of the job creation narrative.

Personal consumption slowed to 0.2% month-on-month in April but is expected to rebound to 0.3% in May. Income growth, meanwhile, is likely to have moderated from 0.8% to 0.4%. The Fed’s preferred inflation indicators—the PCE indices—are anticipated to show modest increases, with headline PCE projected at 2.25% year-on-year and core PCE at 2.58%, partially reflecting the impact of tariff-induced cost pressures.

Fed Outlook in Focus

Attention will also be on S&P Global’s preliminary PMIs for June, which may reveal whether trade tensions are beginning to weigh on business sentiment and activity. Key releases this week include pending home sales for May on Monday, consumer confidence data on Tuesday, new home sales figures on Wednesday, and the final revision of first-quarter GDP on Thursday.

In addition to economic indicators, investors will closely follow Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. The market currently expects a 50 basis point rate cut before year-end, but any hawkish comments from Powell—or indications that tariffs are feeding inflation—could challenge that outlook, potentially lifting the dollar and weighing on equities.

Geopolitical Risks Intensify with the Conflict Between Israel and Iran

The intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran adds another layer of uncertainty. While financial markets outside of the energy sector have largely remained calm, speculation is growing that the U.S. could be drawn into the conflict. Reports have surfaced suggesting that strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities may be considered.

Such developments could lead to rising oil prices, renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Equities could come under pressure globally. However, progress in trade negotiations—such as potential agreements with India or Japan—may help counterbalance these geopolitical risks.

The Euro Falls, but Outlook Improves

The euro, which had recently gained on concerns over U.S. global leadership, has come under pressure amid renewed focus on Europe’s energy vulnerability—especially regarding natural gas—due to the Middle East conflict. However, with the European Central Bank nearing the end of its easing cycle and eurozone growth showing positive surprises, the euro’s recent weakness may be temporary.

Market sentiment could shift again if preliminary PMI data on Monday, June 24, shows resilience. Germany’s Ifo business climate index, scheduled for release on Tuesday, June 25, will provide additional insight into economic sentiment within the region.

Sterling Faces Geopolitical Headwinds

The British pound has been one of 2025’s top-performing currencies, supported by strong first-quarter data, recent trade deals with India and the U.S., and a review of the existing agreement with the European Union. However, rising geopolitical tensions and the U.K.’s twin fiscal and trade deficits make sterling vulnerable to investor retreat during periods of market stress.

Even if PMIs released Monday, June 24, indicate stronger economic performance, sterling’s gains may remain capped as investors favor the U.S. dollar for its safe-haven status.

Canada: Inflation in the Spotlight

Trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada appear close to resolution, but no formal agreement has yet been reached. Canadian inflation remains elevated, with some core indicators exceeding 3.0%. Tuesday’s CPI report on June 25 will be closely watched. If price pressures persist, the likelihood of a July rate cut—currently estimated at just over 20%—could diminish, potentially supporting the Canadian dollar.

Monthly GDP data for Canada, due on Friday, June 27, will also help shape expectations around the Bank of Canada’s policy trajectory.

Conclusion: Australia & Japan Inflation Outlook

Australia’s CPI release on Wednesday, June 25, could determine whether the Reserve Bank of Australia proceeds with a rate cut in July. Currently, markets price the likelihood of such a move at 65%. A stronger-than-expected inflation print could reduce the probability of further easing, providing a lift to the Australian dollar.

In Japan, inflation data will also take center stage. Tokyo’s core inflation rate hit 3.6% year-on-year in May, the highest in more than two years. If June’s figures also reflect accelerating inflation, expectations for another rate hike by the Bank of Japan could strengthen. That would likely support the yen, which has recently underperformed against the dollar amid global tensions.

Japanese preliminary PMIs on Monday, June 24, and a set of key figures—CPI, unemployment, and retail sales—scheduled for release on Friday, June 27, will be crucial in shaping the market’s view on Japan’s next policy moves.

Trade with confidence—get the latest market insights at OnEquity.com.

  • Analysis
  • Weekly Outlook

Post navigation

Previous
Next

Search

Categories

  • Analysis (217)
  • Beginner (24)
  • Cryptos (145)
  • Currencies (188)
  • Daily Technical (147)
  • Education (64)
  • Expert (23)
  • Intermediate (17)
  • Markets (434)
  • News & Releases (22)
  • Stocks (290)
  • Uncategorized (1)
  • Weekly Outlook (69)

Recent posts

  • Trading Hours Update – Additional Changes for August 2025
  • Today’s stocks to watch: Berkshire, Boeing, and Amazon
  • U.S. stock futures rise on heightened hopes for interest rate cuts

Tags

Analysis Bitcoin Cardano CPI Crypto Cryptocurrencies Currencies Daily Dollar earnings Education Elections ETF ETFs Ethereum Euro Fed Index inflation Litecoin Market Markets Nasdaq oil Outlook Pound Ripple SEC Solana Stablecoin Stock Market Stocks Stocks Market Stocks today Technical Technical Analysis Technology Tether Trading Trump Wall Street Weekly Weekly Outlook Yen Yuan

Related posts

Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Outlook for the Week of June 29 – July 4

July 1, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 29–July 4 promises to be pivotal for global markets, with investors watching key economic data and central bank signals amid lingering geopolitical risks. In the U.S., focus will center on core PCE, ISM PMIs, and the jobs report, which could shift expectations for Fed rate cuts, while political tensions over Fed […]

Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Outlook for the Week of June 16–20

June 17, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 16–20 could be pivotal for global markets as central banks take center stage. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady, but all eyes will be on Powell’s tone and the updated dot plot for clues on future cuts. In Europe, the Bank of England may strike […]

Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Outlook for the Week of June 09 – 13

June 10, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 9 – 13 brings a full slate of potential market movers. In the U.S., attention turns to May’s CPI and PPI reports, along with consumer confidence data, which could either reinforce or challenge expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut amid signs of a slowing economy. Trade tensions also loom large, […]

  • Privacy policy
  • Client agreement
  • Legal
  • Support
  • +2484671965
  • [email protected]
  • Chat with us
Company
  • About us
  • Regulation
  • Safety of funds
  • Company news
  • Insights
  • FAQ
Account options
  • Standard accounts
  • Institutional account
  • PAMM accounts
  • Swap-free account
Conditions
  • Spreads overview
  • Leverage tiers
  • CFD specifications
  • Markets coverage
Trading tools
  • MetaTrader 5
  • MetaTrader 4
  • Equinix trading server
  • Economic calendar
  • Daily technical
  • Weekly outlook
  • Market commentary
OnEquity Ltd is incorporated in Seychelles as a Securities Dealer with License No. SD154, authorized by the Seychelles Financial Services Authority (FSA), adhering to the Consolidated Securities Act, 2007. Registration No. 810588-1.

The website is operated and provides content by the OnEquity group of companies, which include:

OnEquity SA (Pty) Ltd, incorporated in South Africa, Company reg. 2021/321834/07, regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) with FSP No. 53187.

OnEquity LLC, recognized by the Registrar of International Business Companies and the Financial Services Authority in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Registration No. 286 LLC 2020.

ONEQ Global Ltd, registered in Cyprus, Company reg. HE 435383, located at Agias Zonis 22, Limassol, focusing on comprehensive service solutions within the OnEquity Group.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of investments is volatile and can result in total loss of capital. Investors should consider their financial situation, investment experience, and risk tolerance, and may seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eligibility: Services are available to individuals 18 years or older.

Restricted Jurisdictions: The content provided by OnEquity is not intended for residents of the United States, Canada, North Korea, Yemen, Iran, Belgium, Syria, or any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

All trademarks™ and brand names belong to their respective owners and are used here for identification purposes only. Use of these names does not imply endorsement.
© OnEquity. All Rights Reserved.