Skip to content
Risk warning: Our products are leveraged and carry a high level of risk, which can result in the loss of your entire capital. Such products may not be suitable for all investors. It is crucial to understand the risks involved fully.
  • Support
  • For Institutionals
  • Trading

    Trading Platforms

    • MetaTrader 4 Terminal
    • MetaTrader 5 Terminal
    • PAMM Accounts
    • Equinix Trading Server

    Markets coverage

    • Forex Currencies
    • Spot Metals
    • Commodities

     

    • CFDs on Stocks
    • Indices
    • CFDs on Crypto

    Start Trading

    • Standard Accounts For individuals
    • Institutional Account For professionals
    • Deposits & Withdrawals
  • Conditions

    Trading Conditions

    • Spreads Overview
    • Swap-Free
    • Leverage Information

     

    • CFD Specifications
    • Full Trading Conditions

    Invest on your terms

    Transparent pricing, reduced trading costs, and leverage that adapts to your strategy.

    Explore conditions
  • Tools
    • Weekly Outlook
    • Daily Technical
    • Market Commentary
    • Economic Calendar
    • News & Insights
  • About
    • About OnEquity
    • Company News
    • Legal Documentation
    • Client Protection
    • Help & Support
    • FAQs
  • Partners
Edit Content
  • English
    ACTIVE
Other languages:
  • Español – Spanish
  • Português – Portuguese
  • English – International
  • Trading
    • Markets Coverage
    • MetaTrader 5 Platform
    • MetaTrader 4 Platform
    • Standard Accounts
    • Institutional Account
    • PAMM Accounts
    • Equinix Trading Server
    • Deposits & Withdrawals
  • Conditions
    • Spreads Overview
    • Leverage Information
    • Swap-Free Trading
    • CFD Specifications
    • Full Trading Conditions
  • Tools
    • Daily Technical
    • Weekly Outlook
    • Market Commentary
    • Economic Calendar
    • News & Insights
  • About
    • About OnEquity
    • Company News
    • Legal Documentation
    • Client Protection
    • Help & Support
    • FAQs
  • Partners
  • Client Portal
  • Open Account
Edit Content
  • English
    ACTIVE
Other languages:
  • Español – Spanish
  • Português – Portuguese
  • English – International
Open Account
Client Portal
Analysis, Daily Technical

Outlook for the Week of September 2 – 6

September 3, 2024 OnEquity

Key points to watch out for:

  • Traders see a 50 basis point Fed cut in September as feasible.
  • Fed gives higher priority to employment data, NFP is awaited.
  • Bank of Canada rate decision, third rate cut in a row is fully priced in.
  • Australian investors watch out for GDP figures.

Expectations for a Likely Fed Rate Cut Remain High

For yet another week, investors are eagerly awaiting the NFP results to get a sense of the size and pace of the Fed’s next rate cuts. The weaker-than-expected July figures generated market turbulence, instilling fears about the possibility of a U.S. economic recession and prompting investors to estimate the Fed’s rate cuts by the end of the year at around 125 basis points.

However, data following the jobs report eased investors’ concerns, prompting them to reduce their bets. That said, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish speech in Jackson Hole did not prompt them to change their bearish view considerably. Investors continue to expect interest rates to end the year around 100 basis points below current levels, with a 35% probability of a 50 basis point reduction at the next scheduled meeting on September 18.

Employment Data Begin to Take Center Stage

In Jackson Hole, Powell pointed out that “the time has come to tighten policy,” and regarding the timing of rate cuts, “it will depend on the data coming in.” He likewise placed special emphasis on the labor market, mentioning that they “would not look for or welcome further cooling of labor market conditions.” This makes the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, September 6, even more relevant, because signs of further cooling could convince traders that the Fed might begin its easing cycle with a bold 50 basis point cut. This could push Treasury yields lower and put further pressure on the U.S. currency.

Right now, the question hanging in the air is: How will Wall Street react? Could the tepid report put recession fears back on the table, or will equity investors rejoice at the estimate of even lower borrowing costs? The answer could be found in the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI results for August, which will be released on Tuesday, September 3, and Thursday, September 5, respectively.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts respectable real GDP growth of 2.0% for the third quarter, and if the ISM prints point to improving activity, investors may maintain their confidence in the world’s largest economy, thereby increasing their risk exposure. Market participants can get some information on the state of the labor market ahead of Friday’s September 6 NFP.

On Tuesday, September 3, the July JOLTS job openings will be released, while on Thursday, September 5, the ADP employment report will be released. Thursday’s agenda also comes with data on nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs for the second quarter.

Bank of Canada Prepares for a Third Straight Rate Cut

In Canada, the Bank of Canada is expected to announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday, September 3, and Canada’s overnight index swaps (OIS) indicate that a third rate cut followed by a fourth rate hike is almost assured. There is even about a 15% chance of a more substantial 50 basis point cut. At its July meeting, the Bank of Canada announced its second cut in a row, leaving the door open for further action at subsequent meetings.

Since then, monthly GDP data showed that the economy slowed in May compared to April and approached stagnation in June. The employment report showed higher job losses in July compared to June, and increasingly relevant, inflation continued its downward trajectory.

The data justifies the estimate that the Bank will cut rates again at this meeting, which also suggests that policymakers will maintain a very accommodative stance. In such an event, the Canadian dollar could slide, but given that rate cuts have already been anticipated for each of the remaining meetings this year, it is unlikely that overall estimates for USD/CAD will change. Because of its risk-sensitive nature, the CAD has been enjoying recent inflows as risk appetite continues to be elevated in the face of aggressive Fed rate cut bets, and if U.S. data corroborates that idea, the prevailing downtrend in the USD/CAD may remain intact. Canadian employment data will be released on Friday, September 6, at the same time as the U.S. data.

Will the Australian GDP Figures Slow the Recovery of the Australian Dollar?

Australian traders will also be concerned this week as, apart from changes in overall market sentiment, they will have to digest Australia’s Q2 GDP data on Wednesday, September 4, as well as China’s Caixin services and manufacturing PMI data on both Monday, September 2, and Wednesday, September 4. During their last meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policymakers decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.10%, adding that they remain willing to tighten policy further, as inflation, although declining, remains high. However, the market does not expect further rate hikes. On the contrary, traders are almost entirely expecting a 25 basis point cut by the end of the year, and the poor data could confirm this view.

If so, the Australian dollar could lose some of its recent aggressive gains, although the fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s expectations are much less dovish compared to those of other major central banks, coupled with increased risk appetite, is likely to keep any associated GDP losses limited and short-lived.

  • Analysis
  • Outlook
  • Weekly

Post navigation

Previous
Next

Search

Categories

  • Analysis (217)
  • Beginner (24)
  • Cryptos (145)
  • Currencies (188)
  • Daily Technical (147)
  • Education (64)
  • Expert (23)
  • Intermediate (17)
  • Markets (434)
  • News & Releases (22)
  • Stocks (290)
  • Uncategorized (1)
  • Weekly Outlook (69)

Recent posts

  • Trading Hours Update – Additional Changes for August 2025
  • Today’s stocks to watch: Berkshire, Boeing, and Amazon
  • U.S. stock futures rise on heightened hopes for interest rate cuts

Tags

Analysis Bitcoin Cardano CPI Crypto Cryptocurrencies Currencies Daily Dollar earnings Education Elections ETF ETFs Ethereum Euro Fed Index inflation Litecoin Market Markets Nasdaq oil Outlook Pound Ripple SEC Solana Stablecoin Stock Market Stocks Stocks Market Stocks today Technical Technical Analysis Technology Tether Trading Trump Wall Street Weekly Weekly Outlook Yen Yuan

Related posts

Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Outlook for the Week of June 29 – July 4

July 1, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 29–July 4 promises to be pivotal for global markets, with investors watching key economic data and central bank signals amid lingering geopolitical risks. In the U.S., focus will center on core PCE, ISM PMIs, and the jobs report, which could shift expectations for Fed rate cuts, while political tensions over Fed […]

Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Outlook for the Week of June 23 – 27

June 24, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 23–27 could prove pivotal for global markets, as investors navigate a mix of economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., attention will center on core PCE and consumer spending data, alongside Fed Chair Powell’s testimony—all under the shadow of tariff impacts and slowing consumption. Europe awaits June PMIs and […]

Analysis, Weekly Outlook

Outlook for the Week of June 16–20

June 17, 2025 OnEquity

The week of June 16–20 could be pivotal for global markets as central banks take center stage. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady, but all eyes will be on Powell’s tone and the updated dot plot for clues on future cuts. In Europe, the Bank of England may strike […]

  • Privacy policy
  • Client agreement
  • Legal
  • Support
  • +2484671965
  • [email protected]
  • Chat with us
Company
  • About us
  • Regulation
  • Safety of funds
  • Company news
  • Insights
  • FAQ
Account options
  • Standard accounts
  • Institutional account
  • PAMM accounts
  • Swap-free account
Conditions
  • Spreads overview
  • Leverage tiers
  • CFD specifications
  • Markets coverage
Trading tools
  • MetaTrader 5
  • MetaTrader 4
  • Equinix trading server
  • Economic calendar
  • Daily technical
  • Weekly outlook
  • Market commentary
OnEquity Ltd is incorporated in Seychelles as a Securities Dealer with License No. SD154, authorized by the Seychelles Financial Services Authority (FSA), adhering to the Consolidated Securities Act, 2007. Registration No. 810588-1.

The website is operated and provides content by the OnEquity group of companies, which include:

OnEquity SA (Pty) Ltd, incorporated in South Africa, Company reg. 2021/321834/07, regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) with FSP No. 53187.

OnEquity LLC, recognized by the Registrar of International Business Companies and the Financial Services Authority in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Registration No. 286 LLC 2020.

ONEQ Global Ltd, registered in Cyprus, Company reg. HE 435383, located at Agias Zonis 22, Limassol, focusing on comprehensive service solutions within the OnEquity Group.
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of investments is volatile and can result in total loss of capital. Investors should consider their financial situation, investment experience, and risk tolerance, and may seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eligibility: Services are available to individuals 18 years or older.

Restricted Jurisdictions: The content provided by OnEquity is not intended for residents of the United States, Canada, North Korea, Yemen, Iran, Belgium, Syria, or any jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

All trademarks™ and brand names belong to their respective owners and are used here for identification purposes only. Use of these names does not imply endorsement.
© OnEquity. All Rights Reserved.