The German DAX Trapped in the Perfect Range
There was a period spanning late 2024 and early spring 2025 when European equity indices — led by the DAX — outperformed their U.S. counterparts for the first time in a long while. Between early September 2024 and March 21, 2025, the German benchmark gained roughly 21%, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq remained essentially flat, having peaked in February with gains just shy of +10%.
Following the tariff-crisis selloff in April 2025, the DAX also rebounded far more quickly than U.S. indices: by early May, it had already recovered nearly all of its losses, whereas U.S. benchmarks required almost two additional months to catch up.
A key factor in this relative strength was the weakening euro, which made European assets more attractive to international and overseas investors. The EUR/USD pair had fallen close to parity in February (1.0124), enhancing the region’s competitiveness. However, the situation has changed markedly since then: the euro has appreciated back toward the 1.19 area, and the DAX (currently around 24,045) is trading at the same levels it did on May 19, nearly six months ago.
That means six months of sideways movement, confined within a prolonged consolidation range, while U.S. indices have continued to post double-digit gains — from +11% for the Dow Jones to +20% for the Nasdaq.
Technical Analysis
Over these six months, the DAX — aside from brief excursions and a few false breakouts — has consistently traded between approximately 23,400 on the downside (the previous mid-March relative high) and 24,450 on the upside, defining a range of about 1,000 points, or roughly 4%.
As with all well-structured ranges, price action has oscillated back and forth, repeatedly testing both boundaries. Until a clear and sustained breakout occurs, technical analysts will continue to regard this range as valid, anticipating the persistence of this pattern.
The most recent test of the upper boundary occurred on October 10, 2025, when the index briefly broke above 24,500 — a false breakout that lasted only two sessions. This was followed
by a downward move that last Friday once again brought prices near 23,500, from which the index rebounded as expected, gaining roughly +2.5% in less than 48 hours of trading.
Given the established range dynamics, we could reasonably expect a move toward 24,450. However, we have been developing a slightly bearish bias toward equity markets in recent weeks — particularly the U.S., which tends to lead global sentiment. For this reason, we are closely monitoring the downtrend line originating on October 9, currently crossing near 24,100 (just 75 points above the current price). Levels around 24,160 and 23,950 are also worth watching as potential intra-range reference points.
Lastly, it is worth noting the attractive intraday volatility of the index, which makes it suitable even for short-term trading strategies: the 10-day ATR currently indicates an average daily range of 328 points, offering ample room for tactical moves.
In conclusion: the DAX remains firmly range-bound after several months of sideways price action — and for now, that range continues to define the market. But sooner or later, something
