NVIDIA Report Earnings After the Closing Bell
Yesterday’s session, ahead of the highly anticipated earnings release from NVIDIA—as is often the case, among the last of the mega-cap names to report this season—was characterized by a solid rebound, finally led by the Technology sector. Major U.S. equity indices advanced between +0.7% and +1.1%. Overnight, both South Korea and Taiwan equity indices—widely regarded as leading indicators for AI-related investments—reached new all-time highs.
The Technology sector as a whole (XLK) gained 1.30%, with the Software sub-sector (IGV) outperforming at +1.9%, although it remains down approximately 25% year-to-date. Among the day’s standout performers were AMD and Qualcomm, direct competitors of NVIDIA, which rose +8.77% and +3.11%, respectively. The move followed the announcement of yet another infrastructure deal by AMD with Meta.
With 425 out of 500 constituents of the benchmark index having already reported earnings, approximately 74% have beaten EPS (earnings per share) expectations and 73% have exceeded revenue forecasts. The EPS beat rate is slightly below the 10-year average trend, while the revenue beat rate is modestly above it. The average magnitude of the earnings surprise versus consensus stands at 7.2%.
For this evening (post-market close), NVIDIA is once again expected to deliver outstanding results, with year-over-year growth estimated at 65%–70% across most key metrics. Revenues are forecast at approximately $66 billion, of which around $60 billion is expected to come from the Data Center segment. Adjusted EPS is projected in the $1.52–$1.54 range. Gross margin is anticipated at 75%, up from 73.6% in Q3.
Technical Analysis
Despite ongoing discussion about a potential slowdown in AI momentum, NVIDIA enters earnings at $192.85, representing only a -9.11% pullback from its intraday all-time high of $212.17 reached on October 28, 2025. Among the so-called “Magnificent Seven,” NVIDIA has been one of the relative outperformers on this metric. Microsoft is currently -29.46% from its highs, Amazon -19.35%, and Alphabet -11.28%.
The options market is pricing in an implied post-earnings move of approximately 5%. Given NVIDIA’s 7.51% weight in the S&P 500, such a move would mechanically translate into an estimated 0.37% impact on the index, excluding any secondary effects on other sector constituents.
Using yesterday’s close as the reference point, the ±5% implied range identifies an upside level around $197.50 (positive earnings surprise / constructive market reaction) and a downside level near $183.50 (negative surprise / adverse reaction). These correspond to the two horizontal blue lines shown on the chart below.
The $183.50 area aligns fairly clearly with a well-defined support/resistance level—particularly when observing price action in late summer and early autumn 2025. If, following the earnings release, the stock does not break below this threshold and instead stabilizes near it, this could represent an attractive short-term entry point (after all, it would reflect approximately a -5% pullback). Conversely, should this level fail—likely during tomorrow’s regular session—there could be additional downside extension toward $179.10 initially, followed by $174.30.
On the upside, if the earnings release triggers buying activity in after-hours trading and pushes the price higher, the $197.50 level sits above the relatively weak resistance at $194.30. In that case, after a potential retest, further upside momentum toward the prior all-time highs could develop over the coming weeks (this would be a medium-term dynamic rather than a single-session move).
In any event, it is important to bear in mind that tomorrow’s opening print for NVIDIA is highly likely to feature a significant gap, given the magnitude of the implied move and the stock’s liquidity profile.
